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宏润建设(002062)2018年报点评:民企市政轨交翘楚 营收扣非亮眼 涉诉拖累归母无碍长远发展

東興證券 ·  Apr 5, 2019 00:00  · Researches

  Investment highlights: The company released its 2018 annual report. The company achieved annual revenue of 9.888 billion dollars, an increase of 21.67%, a net profit of 300 million dollars, a 10.47% increase, a deduction of 423 million dollars, and an increase of 55.11%; revenue and non-deduction growth was impressive, and the growth rate of revenue and non-deduction was impressive, and the growth rate was lower than expected but did not hinder long-term development due to complaints. The company's Q4 revenue/revenue/deduction growth rate was 36%/-11%/139%, year-on-year change of 61 pp/-29 pp/93pp, month-on-month change of 9pp/-21pp/130pp, annual revenue/net growth rate of 22%/10%/55%, year-on-year changes of 29 pp/-6pp/23pp, respectively. Revenue and non-growth rates are impressive, and the growth rate is lower than expected. We believe that the company is currently focusing on municipal transactions and accounting for losses of 261 million dollars. The field, this calculation is unhindered Overall long-term development. At the same time, the profit and loss of minority shareholders - 102 million, a sharp decrease from 550,000 last year, increased to the parent; net interest rates declined due to the lawsuit, and cash flow continued to decline due to development expenses. Annual gross profit margin was 12.38%, same increase by 2pp; sales/management/ finance rates were 0.11%/4.71%/1.32%, respectively, changes of -0.2 pp/2.6 pp (R&D expenses included in 281 million) /- 0.5 pp, period expenses also increased 73%, fee rate 5.89%, up 1.8 pp year on year; impairment and net investment income was 16.16 million/37.13 million, accounting for 8.2%/18.8% of net profit, accounting for 8.2%/18.8% of net profit, accounting for 8.2%/18.8% of net profit, accounting for a decline of 21.1 pp/ 7.6 pp, respectively; involving non-operating expenses of 264 million, Significant increase of 260 million yuan, income tax rate increased by 6.8 pp by 33.66%, same increase by 2.1 pp; current payment ratio: 96%/77.4%, changes of -13.7 pp/0.5 pp respectively, operating cash flow of 410 million yuan and decrease of 63%, due to payment of 618 million yuan in concessions for guaranteed housing projects in Zhuanqiao Town, Shanghai; net investment cash flow - 520 million yuan, double investment outflow to high-speed rail projects; debt ratio of 78.89%, same increase of 2.1pp; private enterprise and municipal rail transit, currently focusing on the Yangtze River Delta and municipal transit markets, Plenty of orders, main The industry is growing rapidly, and it is expected to fully benefit from the implementation of the Shanghai-Suhang-Shanghai Rail Transit Project. The company has special construction and municipal qualifications and has been deeply involved in the Shanghai market for more than 20 years. It is the first private enterprise in China to carry out shield construction. The rail transit business covers 18 cities, currently has 35 shield equipment, and has completed more than 160 km of tunnel shield excavation, ranking among the top residential enterprises. The construction industry won a bid of 13.2 billion dollars for the year, 1.3 times the revenue of the current period. Of this, rail transit municipalities accounted for 76%, including Hangzhou Line 3/4/7 and Suzhou Line 6. The revenue for the current order of 26.6 billion yuan at the end of the period was 2.7 times higher than that of the current period. Construction/real estate/new energy revenue during the reporting period was 8.78 billion /950 million/140 million, an increase of 28%/-14%/-1%; the revenue of the construction business was 4.08 billion/3.49 billion/1.21 billion, an increase of 41%/35%/12%; East China's revenue of 7.91 billion yuan increased by 43%/35%/12%; the 2018H2 Development and Reform Commission approved 773.6 billion new subways, including Shanghai (298.3 billion), state (95.5 billion), and Suzhou (93.3 billion), and Hangzhou (93.3 billion), with strong company participation High general Continued benefits; in 2018, the company launched an employee stock ownership incentive plan, which has purchased 4.41% of the total share capital, which is expected to unleash vitality; profit forecast and investment ratings: the company is expected to achieve operating income of 10.804 billion yuan, 12.75 billion yuan and 13.612 billion yuan respectively from 2019 to 2021; net profit of 377 million yuan, 453 million yuan and 535 million yuan respectively; EPS is 0.34 yuan, 0.41 yuan and 0.49 yuan respectively. The corresponding PE is 13.6X and 11.35X respectively and 9.6X. Maintain a “Recommended” rating. Risk warning: 1. Project progress falls short of expectations; 2. Market competition risk; 3. Financial risk.

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