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大禹节水(300021)事件点评:Q1归母净利润同比增长20-50% 农村节水龙头稳步发展

國海證券 ·  Apr 11, 2019 00:00  · Researches

Event: The company released the 2019 quarterly report forecast, and is expected to achieve net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of 5527.67 to 69.059 million yuan. Key investment points: The business is progressing smoothly, and net profit for Q1 has increased year-on-year. Thanks to the company's increased market development efforts and the smooth commencement of ongoing engineering projects, the company's revenue increased a lot compared to the same period last year, driving a 20-50% year-on-year increase in net profit. The median net profit for the first quarter was 62.19 million yuan, an increase of 35% over the same period last year. Water saving work will be further promoted, and the company is expected to directly benefit as a leader. When deploying this year's water-saving work, the Information Office of the State Council pointed out that by vigorously promoting and promoting efficient water-saving irrigation in the field of agricultural water conservation and efficiency, by 2020, 40% of county-level administrative districts in the northern region and more than 20% in the southern region will meet social standards for water conservation, and by 2035, all county-level administrative districts will meet social standards for water conservation. At present, the effective utilization coefficient of farmland irrigation water in China is 0.548, while developed countries in the world have reached 0.7-0.8. China still has a lot of room for improvement. Agricultural water consumption accounts for more than 60% of the total domestic water consumption. The application of water conservation in the agricultural sector has made great progress. Demand for high-standard and efficient water-saving farmland construction is expected to increase significantly, and the company is expected to directly benefit. Land system reform continues to advance, benefiting the company's customers and business development. The 2019 report on the work of the government proposed promoting rural land expropriation, the entry of land for collective management construction into the market, and the pilot reform of the homestead system. Land system reform continues to deepen. At the same time, the “separation of powers” system for contracted land continues to improve, which will provide an institutional foundation for land circulation. We believe that the continuous promotion of land circulation is conducive to speeding up agricultural modernization and achieving large-scale management. The company's main customers and orders are expected to expand and expand starting with the current government as the main focus. Maintain the company's “increase in holdings” rating: Rural revitalization has been upgraded to a new national strategy, and investment in agriculture and rural areas will continue to increase in the future. Among them, the construction of high-standard and efficient water-saving farmland is the focus of investment. The company is a leader in the domestic agricultural water-saving industry and will fully benefit from the development dividends of the industry. The abundance of orders on hand can strongly support future performance growth. Based on industry development dividends and the company's leading position, we predict that the company's 2018-2020 EPS will be 0.15, 0.24, and 0.35 yuan/share, respectively, corresponding to the current stock price PE of 50.26, 30.68, and 20.96 times, respectively, maintaining the company's “increased holdings” rating. Risk warning: The risk that the policy will not advance as expected; the risk that the financing environment will cause the project to start and progress will not meet expectations. S

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