share_log

太极实业(600667):去年获利强势增长 短遇存储器下行逆风

國金證券 ·  Apr 8, 2019 00:00  · Researches

Performance Brief Review Driven by a sharp 56% year-on-year increase in Eleven Technology's cleanroom turnkey business, Taiji announced a 30% year-on-year increase in revenue last year (6% higher than the previous estimate), superior to Tongfu Microelectronics's 11% year-on-year increase and Huatian Technology's 1% year-on-year increase. Coupled with a better gross profit margin, Taiji announced that the parent company's net profit increased by 37% last year (25% higher than estimated), reaching 0.27 yuan EPS, and ROE also increased from 6.8% in 2017 to 8.9% in 2018. Operating analysis's gross margin was better than expected: due to engineering design gross margin (47.5% vs. 45% previously estimated) and Haitai and Taiji Semiconductor's memory sealing gross margin ratio (16.7% vs. 12.5% previously estimated), Taiji Industrial announced a gross margin of 13.3% in 2018 (higher than the previous estimate of 12.6%). Better free cash flow than peers: The ratio of capital expenditure to revenue fell sharply from 12% in 2017 to 6.5% in 2018. Instead, it was lower than (net profit+depreciation and amortization) of 8.1% of revenue. This enabled Taiji to generate nearly 1 billion yuan in additional cash in 2018, which outperformed the industry's cash outflow. The profit adjustment takes into account short-term downside trends in the memory industry. We lowered profits by nearly 5% in 2019 and raised profits by nearly 2% in 2020. We expect revenue to decline by 8% in 2019 and increase by 16% in 2020, which is lower than Wande's 4% and 29% year-on-year growth. We expect profits to decline by 13% in 2019 and increase by 43% in 2020. Investment advice While investors are already looking forward to the recovery of the semiconductor and memory industry in 2020-2021, and benefiting from mass production by Hefei Changxin and Changjiang Storage, we raised the target price from CNY$9.4 in the average valuation to CNY$11.7 in the upward cycle valuation. We believe that with an ROE of 10-15%, the stock price should remain 3.0-4.0 times the net assets per share. Looking at the updated target price of CNY$11.7, the stock price is 3.2 times the net assets per share in 2021. We estimate that ROE will increase from 8.9% in 2018 to 12% in 2021. Risks indicate the risk of excessive customer concentration, the risk of the downturn in memory cycles to cash costs, the risk of inflexible management mechanisms of state-owned enterprises, and the performance risk caused by weak follow-up orders for clean room engineering and design business.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


The above content is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice related to Futu. Although we strive to ensure the truthfulness, accuracy, and originality of all such content, we cannot guarantee it.
    Write a comment