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大禹节水(300021):一季度业绩高增长 节水龙头稳步成长!

天風證券 ·  Apr 10, 2019 00:00  · Researches

Event: The company disclosed its performance forecast for the first quarter of 2019. It is expected to achieve net profit of 55.28 million to 69.1 million yuan in the first quarter, with a year-on-year growth rate of 20%-50%, with a growth center of 35%. PPP orders are being implemented at an accelerated pace, and profitability has increased, helping performance continue to grow at a high rate. Since 2016, due to the country's increased investment in agriculture and rural areas and the implementation of the PPP model in the field of agricultural and rural infrastructure construction, the company's leading advantages have been highlighted, and orders have grown rapidly. In 2017-2018, the company's new orders reached 3 billion and 4.5 billion, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 88% and 52%, respectively. Furthermore, as the company's large PPP orders continue to be implemented, the company's profitability is also expected to continue to improve, contributing to high performance growth. In the first quarter of 2019, the company's performance continued to maintain high growth, which is the result of the company's continuous increase in orders and profitability in recent years. The company benefits from the implementation of the national strategy: rural revitalization promotes the golden period of farmland and rural water resources development! In September 2018, the “National Rural Revitalization Strategic Plan (2018-2022)” was officially released, proposing to strengthen agricultural and rural infrastructure construction, and the development of water-saving agriculture ushered in a period of opportunity. We expect agriculture and rural areas to become a top priority in the country's development and investment. Furthermore, the company is currently mainly engaged in government-side projects. We expect that as rural revitalization continues to advance, agriculture-related enterprises will also generate a large amount of convenient demand such as water-saving irrigation and intelligent agricultural production. As the leading water-saving irrigation for farmland, the company is expected to move from government projects to enterprise projects in the future and open up new growth space! The company has strengthened cooperation with local water investment platforms, and the card position trend has been achieved, laying the foundation for the company's future orders and performance! Currently, the industry is still at a stage where the company is in a competitive position. As a leader, its competitive advantage is prominent; the company has strengthened cooperation with local water investment and operation platforms and financial platforms such as Cathay Pacific Water Conservation, Shanxi Water Investment, Qinghai Water Investment, and Henan Water Investment, etc., and the card position has been achieved. As the partnership progresses, we expect the company's orders to continue to grow rapidly. Giving a “buy” rating: In 2018, due to factors such as the tightening of national financial policies, the company's orders fell short of expectations, and performance fell short of previous expectations. We lowered the company's 2018-2020 revenue from 20.46/33.60/5.453 billion to 17.14/25.50/3.318 billion yuan, and lowered the company's net profit in 2018-2020 from 1.74/321/584 million to 1.19/2.04/304 million, with a year-on-year growth rate of 24.39%/ 71.49%/49.23%, corresponding EPS is 0.15 yuan, 0.26 yuan, and 0.38 yuan respectively, and the price-earnings ratio corresponding to the closing price of 7.16 yuan on April 9 is 48 times, 28 times, and 19 times. Considering the company's broad development space and high growth, it continues to be given a buying rating! Risk warning: 1. Changes in national policies; 2. Order execution falls short of expectations.

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