Main points of investment: the only legal person securities company in Henan Province, AqiH has greatly improved its listing and financing capacity in both places, reformed all aspects of each line, and insisted on a high dividend rate. The reasonable value range is 5.35 RMB 6.43 yuan, maintaining the "neutral" rating.
[event] Zhongyuan Securities achieved revenue of 1.6 billion yuan in 2018,-23% year-on-year; net profit of 70 million yuan,-85% year-on-year; corresponding to 0.02 yuan of EPS. In the fourth quarter, the operating income was 400 million yuan,-34% compared with the same period last year, and the net profit loss was 70 million yuan. The year-on-year decline in net profit is mainly due to the increase in interest expenses on long-term and short-term debt, including a credit impairment loss of 300 million yuan. In 2018, brokerage / underwriting / asset management / interest / investment income accounted for 26% of operating income, respectively.
Attach great importance to the construction of online intelligent service system to improve customer service efficiency and experience. Realized brokerage income of 400 million yuan,-27% compared with the same period last year. The share of the stock-based market is 0.52%. Sales of online financial services platform products were + 52% year-on-year, and 9101 new customers were added through Internet cooperation, + 158% year-on-year. "Cai Shengbao" added 108600 registered users, and the number of registered users exceeded 210000, a year-on-year increase of 104%. By the end of December, the balance of the two financial institutions was 4.1 billion yuan, with the city accounting for 0.54%. Stock pledge undecompressed market value balance of 14.3 billion yuan, compared with 17-8%.
Comprehensive reform of the investment banking business line. The underwriting income reached 100 million yuan, which was the same as the same period last year. The underwriting scale of stocks and bonds is + 100% and-29% respectively compared with the same period last year. Equity main underwriting scale of 300 million yuan, including IPO1 family, underwriting scale of 100 million yuan; refinancing, underwriting scale of 200 million yuan. The main underwriting scale of bonds is 4.7 billion yuan, while the underwriting scale of corporate bonds and ABS is 4.3 billion yuan and 400 billion yuan respectively. There are 14 IPO reserve projects, including 2 on the main board and 1 on the gem. The investment banking team of the company has increased to more than 300, of which 50 are from Baodai, narrowing the gap with advanced securities firms.
The asset management structure has been restructured, and 18 years' income from asset management has risen instead of falling. The asset management income reached 100 million yuan, + 9% compared with the same period last year. The scale of entrusted capital management is 11.3 billion yuan,-47% compared with the same period last year; of which, the scale of collective capital management is 5.2 billion yuan,-24% compared with the same period last year; the scale of targeted capital management is 5.2 billion yuan, which is-61% compared with the same period last year; and the scale of special capital management is 900 million yuan, which is-10% of the same period last year.
The rate of return of equity active management is better than that of the market. The company's accounting standards have been adjusted, taking into account the 60 million interest income of other claims and creditor's rights investments, and the net investment income has been 400 million yuan in 18 years, + 1% of the same period last year.
[investment suggestion] We expect the company's net profit per share from 2019 to 2021E to be 0.11,0.12,0.13 yuan respectively, and its net assets per share to be 2.68,2.73,2.78 yuan respectively. Taking into account that the company has always adhered to a high dividend rate, cash dividends accounted for an average of 84% of the net profit returned home in the past five years. The long-term and stable high dividend not only helps to enhance the allocation enthusiasm of investors, but also shows the management's confidence in the future performance improvement of the company. In addition, Atroph listing, strong financing capacity, capital consumption business and other business is expected to accelerate growth. We give it a slightly higher valuation than the industry, giving it 2.0-2.4x Pmax B in 2019, corresponding to a fair value range of 5.35muri 6.43 yuan, maintaining a "neutral" rating.
Risk hint: the continued downturn in the market leads to a decline in the scale of business, and market supervision is further strengthened.
