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双一科技(300690)深度报告:风电机舱罩龙头 业绩拐点显现

中泰證券 ·  Mar 31, 2019 00:00  · Researches

The company is a leader in wind turbine hatch covers. The company's main products are wind turbine hood products (product specifications cover the 750KW-7MW level) and non-metallic mold products, etc. The two business competition patterns and the company's excellent customer structure are expected to benefit from the rising industry boom and enjoy leading premiums. In addition, the company added 100,000 new composite products for vehicles and the yacht business, which is expected to provide increased performance. Performance declined due to delays in orders from major customers, and 2019 results may reverse. Siemens, the company's second largest customer, merged with Gamesa in 2018. After October 2018, Siemens Gamesa's new orders declined due to the impact on the company's 2018 performance. From 2019 to 2020, on the one hand, due to the resumption of orders, and on the other hand, due to the recovery of the wind power industry, the company's orders for wind turbine blade molds and wind turbine hull products may increase dramatically, so performance is expected to reverse. According to the company's announcement, 2019Q1, the company expects to achieve net profit of 33 million yuan to 38 million yuan, an increase of 96.05% to 125.75% over the same period last year, and performance is expected to increase. China's wind power may be facing a rush to install, and the industry boom is picking up. Currently, subsidies for photovoltaics and wind power are speeding up, and enterprises are speeding up existing construction. In addition to the six provinces included in the “red warning” in 2017 due to high wind abandonment rates, Inner Mongolia, Heilongjiang, and Ningxia have already lifted the ban. On December 28, 2016, the National Development and Reform Commission issued the “Notice on Adjusting Benchmark Feed-in Targets for Onshore Wind Power for Photovoltaic Power Generation” to reduce the benchmark feed-in tariffs for onshore wind power newly approved for construction after January 1, 2018, and electricity prices before implementation of the price reduction for projects approved before 2018. As a result, projects approved in 2017 will begin before the end of 2019, and demand for wind power installations is expected to explode in 2019-2020. With the resumption of orders from major overseas customers and the development of the domestic market, the company's orders are expected to rise sharply in 2019-2020. The competitive landscape is excellent, and the company enjoys a leading premium. In 2018, the world's top four machine manufacturers Vestas (Denmark), Goldwind Technology, GE (US), and Siemens Gamesa (Spain) accounted for 57% of the world's new onshore wind power market, and the wind power machine manufacturing industry had an excellent competitive pattern. Among them, Vestas, Goldwind Technology, and SiemensGameSA are all company customers. As the core supplier of the world's leading wind power units, the company is expected to fully benefit from the increase in the installed capacity of leading wind power. The decline in raw material prices is expected to benefit from declining costs. The company is mainly engaged in the resin-based composite materials industry. Resin and steel account for a large part of the raw materials, of which the resin is mainly epoxy resin. The price center for epoxy resin and steel in 2019 is likely to be lower than in 2018, or will benefit from declining costs. Fund-raising projects are expected to contribute to increased performance. The auto parts project with an annual output of 100,000 pieces completed land acquisition, plant construction and introduction of key equipment, and achieved 10 million sales revenue in 2018; the large-scale non-metallic mold and wind turbine hood project has been launched in Yancheng. The company currently leases a plant of 12,000 square meters. In 2018, it completed the production of two sets of wind turbine blade molds and ten sets of large-scale offshore wind turbine hull products. Later, it acquired more than 100 acres of land in Yancheng to build 4 plants. On the one hand, it satisfies the production of large-scale non-metallic molds and engine room cover products for offshore wind power, and on the other hand, makes full use of large traffic in Dagang transport The advantages lay out the production capacity needs of overseas markets for the “Two Seas Strategy”. The company added yachts and composites and established a new yacht limited company. The company has introduced an outstanding team with superior technology and yacht market operation experience, and has jointly registered Shandong Shuangyi Yacht Co., Ltd., and Shuangyi Technology holds 70% of its shares. Double One Yacht plans to introduce more than 30 units (sets) of advanced production equipment (sets), 43 patented boat design and production technologies, 18 sets of boat production molds and related supporting facilities, and 32 ship-related product certifications. The products mainly include: small and medium-sized composite yachts, small and medium-sized aluminum alloy yachts and yacht trailers. Using core manufacturing technology such as solid buoyancy anti-collision modules, the products have excellent quality and stable sales channels, and are mainly sold to the US, Canada, Australia, New Zealand and other markets. After completion of the project, it is estimated that the production scale of 2,000 sets of yachts and accessories will be achieved annually. Profit forecast and rating: We expect the company to achieve operating income of 750 million yuan, 886 million yuan and 1,031 million yuan respectively in 2018-2020, with year-on-year growth rates of 39.85%, 18.22% and 16.39% respectively; net profit of 141 million, 166 million and 188 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 60.57%, 17.93% and 13.17% respectively; corresponding EPS of 1.27/1.50/1.70 yuan, respectively. It was covered for the first time, and a “increase in holdings” rating was given. Risk warning: the risk of a sharp decline in orders and a decline in major customers, the risk of a decline in the prosperity of the wind power industry, and the risk of new plant production and sales falling short of expectations.

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