The largest manufacturer of prestressed steel in China. The company has experienced many years of development, starting from the production of prestressed steel wire mold, the business has been expanded to prestressed concrete steel, new business of high-speed railway prestressed concrete track plate, and rail transit information equipment. The products are widely used in railway, water transmission and distribution projects, highways, bridges, civil construction and other industries. At present, the company has become a large-scale prestressed steel enterprise in the industry.
The market of prestressed steel is developing steadily. At present, the average annual demand of the domestic prestress market is more than 7 million tons, and the company's annual production capacity of prestressed steel products has reached 600000 tons, with a domestic market share of 6% and 7%. The company has been ploughing the industry for many years, has a strong R & D advantage, railways and many other high-quality customer resources, the future market share is expected to further increase.
The leader of the track plate, the neglected core target of high-speed rail. The company is one of the leading international research and development units of CRTSIII two-way pretensioned prestressed concrete track plate, taking the lead in realizing the localization of track plate, successively supplying Shen Dan, Zheng Xu, Beijing-Shenyang and other high-speed railway lines and contributing performance. As the domestic high-speed rail construction continues to accelerate, especially the increasing demand for the construction of more than 300 km / h lines, the company's track plate business is expected to enter a period of rapid growth in the future.
According to China's "eight vertical and eight horizontal" planning, by 2025, the high-speed railway will reach 38000 km; in the long term (by 2030), the scale of the railway network will reach about 200000 km, and the high-speed railway will be about 45000 km. Based on this, it is estimated that the market space of CRTSIII slab ballastless track slab will be 12.6 billion yuan in the next 2-3 years, and the corresponding annual market space will be 40-5 billion yuan.
At present, the company has five board factories built or under construction (including the joint venture Shangtie Wuhu). According to the conservative order quantity, 20, 000 per project, considering the annual supply of 4-5 high-speed rail lines, the corresponding net profit is 4000-50 million yuan; if according to the relatively optimistic order quantity, each project is 40,000, the corresponding net profit is more than 100 million yuan, and the track plate business accounts for about 50% of the net profit.
Profit forecast & investment advice. It is estimated that the company's income in 19 and 20 years will be 2.617 billion yuan and 2.935 billion yuan respectively, up 12% and 12% respectively over the same period last year; the net profit belonging to the parent company will be 196 million yuan and 248 million yuan, up 30% and 27% respectively over the same period last year; and the realized EPS will be 0.23 yuan and 0.29 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 25.4 times and 20.0 times respectively. Maintain the "highly recommended-A" rating.