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CGN NEW ENERGY HOLDINGS CO L(01811.HK):匍匐前进

申萬宏源研究 ·  Mar 21, 2019 00:00  · Researches

CGN New Energy's 2018 revenue reached US$1.36 billion (up 22.5% year on year), and net profit reached 88.2 million US dollars (up 42.5% year on year). Our performance fell short of our previous expectations, mainly due to impairment losses of nearly US$23.4 million in 2018. We lowered our EPS forecast as follows: $0.032 to $0.023 in 2019, $0.035 to $0.025 in 2020, and estimated EPS of around $0.026 in 2021. We maintain our target price of HK$1.38. Currently, we have 10% upside and maintain our holdings. The data fell slightly short of expectations. The company's revenue in 2018 increased 22.5% year over year to $1.36 billion, which is basically in line with our previous expectations. However, net profit attributable to mother was slightly lower than previously anticipated, mainly due to other losses rising 194.7% year over year to $22.1 million in 2018. This significant increase was mainly due to non-recurring one-time impairment losses of approximately US$2.34 billion due to properties, plants and equipment in China's cogeneration projects. After deducting the impact of this impairment loss, we expect net profit to return to $100 million in 2019. In 2018, the company plans to pay a final dividend of approximately $22.1 million, corresponding to a 25% dividend rate and a current dividend rate of 3.6%. The debt ratio has risen. By the end of 2018, corporate bank loans had risen from US$1.6 billion in 2017 to US$2 billion, and the net debt ratio had increased to 2.58 from 2.25 in 2017. Financial expenses rose 8% year over year to $110 million at the end of 2018. We believe that the main reason for the increase in debt was the year-on-year increase in the company's capital expenditure in 2018 (US$110 million in 2017 and US$390 million in 2018). Diversified business development. CGN New Energy's asset portfolio includes wind power, photovoltaics, gas, coal, fuel, hydropower, cogeneration and fuel cell power generation and steam projects in China and South Korea. As of the end of 2018, the company's equity installed capacity was 5.3 GW, of which 66.5% were clean and renewable energy projects, and the remaining portion was traditional energy projects. In 2018, the company added 312 MW of equity installed capacity, of which 108 MW was a wind power project, 194 MW was a photovoltaic project and a 10 MW gas project. Maintain an increase in holdings. We lowered our EPS forecast as follows: $0.032 to $0.023 in 2019, $0.035 to $0.025 in 2020, and estimated EPS of around $0.026 in 2021. We maintain a target price of HK$1.38, which is 7.5 times 19-year PE and 0.8 times 19-year PB. Currently, there is 10% upside to maintain the increase in holdings.

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