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中国天瑞水泥(01252.HK):景气有望维持

China Tianrui Cement (01252.HK): Prosperity is expected to be maintained

興業證券 ·  Mar 21, 2019 00:00  · Researches

Key investment points The company disclosed 2018 results: revenue of RMB 10.061 billion (same unit), up 19.5% year on year; gross profit of RMB 3.273 billion, up 36.6% year on year; gross margin increased 4.0 percentage points to 32.5%; profit attributable to the owners of the company was 1,213 billion yuan, up 21.0% year on year. The execution and operation environment was good. The volume and price of the company's cement & clinker rose sharply, and gross margin increased significantly. The company sold 32.2 million tons of cement & clinker in 2018, an increase of 2.2% over the previous year. The average price of cement was 309.3 yuan/ton, an increase of 41 yuan/ +15.1% year-on-year. The cost of a ton of cement was 191.7 yuan, the same as last year. Gross profit per ton was 117.6 yuan, an increase of 40 yuan/ +51.4% year-on-year. The estimated cost of three tons was 64.6 yuan/ton (heavy financial burden), and the net profit per ton was 13.3 yuan, an increase of 205.8% over the previous year. Profits improved significantly after excluding derivatives earnings. Excluding the impact of changes in the fair value of derivative financial assets, the company's profit before tax was 1,736.5 million yuan, an increase of about 833.8 million/ 92.4% over the previous year, and profit improved significantly. With ultra-low emissions and green mines, Henan's new environmental protection policy is at the forefront of the industry. Cement companies in Henan Province that meet the requirements of ultra-low emissions and green mines can be exempted from false peak production. Grassroots research revealed that currently 90% of enterprises in Henan meet ultra-low emission standards, and there are about 10 green mine production lines that meet the standards (accounting for about 15% of production capacity in the province), while none of the mine production lines face the risk of shutdown (about 8-10). A number of environmental protection policies have been introduced, forcing industrial transformation and upgrading, structural adjustments, and optimized layout. Our view: Tianrui cement clinker production capacity is concentrated in Henan (67%) and Liaoning (28%). In 2019, Henan Province planned to implement the “Double Thousand Project” of the expressway. It plans to start 14 highway projects, with a total mileage of 1002 kilometers and a total investment of 108.6 billion yuan, a significant increase of 130% over 2018. The Henan market is relatively closed, the average price of cement is higher than that of the whole country, and there is no new production capacity. We judge that infrastructure investment in 2019 will continue to drive demand for cement, and the economy fluctuates at a high level. The company's closing price on 2019/3/21 corresponds to 13.74 times PE and 1.5 times PB in 2018, with a market value of 540 yuan per ton of clinker, which is reasonable in valuation. Risk warning: economic deterioration, breakdown of industry collaboration, fluctuation in raw material prices, individual stock liquidity risk

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