Comments on the major issues of Zhengtong Electronics (002197): IDC has won the bid Ping an 2.6 billion large single IDC+ ecological strategy has been steadily advanced.

中信證券 · Mar 22, 2019 00:00 · Researches

公司IDC 业务获平安26 亿大额订单，机柜数/上架率双升确定性增强，金融客户占比提升带动单机柜收入上涨；照明电子/云计算取得进展，“IDC+生态”战略稳步推进。我们小幅上调2020 年EPS预测至0.47 元（原值为0.46 元；维持2018/2019年EPS 预测0.01/0.32 元不变），维持2018/2019/2020 年EBITDA 预测为1.7/3.9/5.1 亿元，维持2019 年目标EV/EBITDA 21 倍，对应目标价12.90 元，对应2019 年PE 40 倍，维持“买入”评级。

IDC 获26 亿大额订单，照明电子/云计算取得进展。公司近期发布多项公告：1）全资子公司“证通云计算”通过国家高新技术企业认定，连续三年享受15%的优惠所得税率，2017 年公司所得税率20%（3 月14 日）；2）与“威胜能源”签署光伏扶贫电站建设项目合同，总价1.06 亿，占2017 年营收6.3%（3 月20 日）；3）中标南航2019-2020 年度开发测试外包采购项目（3 月20 日）；4）中标“平安科技”2019 年机房项目，涉及2620 个机柜10 年租期，总价26 亿（3 月21日）。

机柜数/上架率双升确定性增强，金融客户占比提升带动单机柜收入上涨。公司2017 年底上架机柜4200 个（广州南沙/东菀石竭），2018 年与“平安通信”（深圳光明1454 个机柜8 年8.85 亿）和“长沙移动”（长沙云谷1500 个机柜10 年7.11 亿）签订了大额合同，预计2019 年1 月/12 月东菀旗峰/长沙云谷将新增至3500/4500 个机柜。此次“平安科技”项目中标表明了公司IDC 机柜数/上架率双升的确定性。另外根据公司2016/2017 年IDC 收入和近一年中标情况，运营商/互联网/金融客户单机柜收入分别约5/6/8-10 万元，金融客户占比提升带来单机柜收入上涨，驱动公司毛利率进一步上涨。

1.5 万机柜深度布局粤港澳大湾区，“IDC+生态”战略稳步推进。流量高增/摩尔定律失效促进IDC 长期需求，一线城市供不应求；云计算发展迅猛，我国IDC市场有望维持30%的增长；智慧城市/智慧园区投资快速增长，成长空间巨大。公司2015 年启动IDC 建设，与传统业务相协同实行“IDC+生态”战略，发力云计算/智慧金融/智慧城市/智慧园区等增值业务。近期系列公告充分表明公司战略的稳步推进，有望持续提升公司业务附加值。

风险因素：IDC 扩张及上架率提升不及预期，中标项目合同签署与条款不确定性。

投资建议：考虑到此次“平安科技”IDC 订单落地和执行的时间较长，基于谨慎原则，小幅上调2020 年EPS 预测至0.47 元（原值为0.46 元；维持2018/2019年EPS 预测0.01/0.32 元不变），维持2018/2019/2020 年EBITDA 预测为1.7/3.9/5.1 亿元，维持2019 年目标EV/EBITDA 21 倍，对应目标价12.9 元，对应2019 年PE 40 倍，维持“买入”评级。

The company's IDC business won 26 billion large orders, the double-rise certainty of the number of cabinets / shelving rate increased, and the increase in the proportion of financial customers led to the increase of single cabinet revenue; lighting electronic / cloud computing made progress, and the "IDC+ ecology" strategy advanced steadily. We slightly increase the 2020 EPS forecast to 0.47 yuan (the original value is 0.46 yuan; keep the 2018 / 2019 EPS forecast 0.01 EPS 0.32 yuan unchanged), maintain the 2018 debacle 2019 EBITDA forecast at 1.7 EPS 5.1 million yuan, maintain the 2019 target EV/EBITDA 21 times, corresponding to the target price 12.90 yuan, corresponding to 2019 PE 40 times, maintain the "buy" rating.

IDC has received 26 billion large orders, and progress has been made in lighting electronic / cloud computing. The company has recently issued a number of announcements: 1) the wholly-owned subsidiary "Zhengtong Cloud Computing" has been recognized by national high-tech enterprises, enjoy a preferential income tax rate of 15% for three consecutive years, and the corporate income tax rate in 2017 is 20% (March 14); 2) sign a contract with Weisheng Energy for the construction of a photovoltaic poverty alleviation power station, with a total price of 106 million, accounting for 6.3% of 2017 revenue (March 20). 3) China Southern Airlines 2019-2020 development and test outsourcing procurement project (March 20); 4) won the bid "Ping an Technology" 2019 computer room project, involving 2620 cabinets for 10-year lease, with a total price of 2.6 billion (March 21).

The double-rise certainty of the number of cabinets / shelving rate has increased, and the increase in the proportion of financial customers has led to an increase in revenue from single cabinets. The company has 4200 cabinets on shelves at the end of 2017 (Guangzhou Nansha / East Aster exhausted), and signed large contracts with "Ping an Communication" (Shenzhen Guangming 1454 cabinets in 8 years 885 million) and "Changsha Mobile" (Changsha Yungu 1500 cabinets 711 million in 10 years). It is expected that in January / December 2019, East Aster Qifeng / Changshayungu will increase to 3500pm. The winning bid of the "Ping an Technology" project shows the certainty of the double rise in the number of IDC cabinets / shelf rate of the company. In addition, according to the company's 2016 IDC revenue in 2017 and the winning bid in the past year, the single cabinet income of operators / Internet / financial customers is about RMB 100000 in 5-6-8, respectively. The increase in the proportion of financial customers leads to an increase in cabinet revenue, which drives the company's gross profit margin to rise further.

Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area, with the deep layout of 15,000 cabinets, the strategy of "IDC+ ecology" has been steadily advanced. High traffic growth / failure of Moore's Law promotes the long-term demand for IDC, which is in short supply in first-tier cities; cloud computing is developing rapidly, and China's IDC market is expected to maintain 30% growth; and investment in smart cities / smart parks is growing rapidly, with huge room for growth. The company launched IDC construction in 2015 and implemented the "IDC+ ecology" strategy in coordination with traditional business to develop value-added services such as cloud computing / smart finance / smart city / smart park. The recent series of announcements fully show the steady progress of the company's strategy and are expected to continue to enhance the added value of the company's business.

Risk factors: the expansion and shelving rate of IDC are lower than expected, and the contract signing and terms of the winning project are uncertain.

Investment suggestion: considering that the "Ping an Technology" IDC order has been landed and executed for a long time, based on the principle of caution, slightly increase the forecast of EPS in 2020 to 0.47 yuan (the original value is 0.46 yuan). Maintain the 2018 / 2019 EPS forecast of 0.01max 0.32 yuan), maintain 2018Universe 2019 EBITDA forecast of 1.7 million yuan in 2020, maintain the 2019 target EV/EBITDA 21 times, corresponding to the target price 12.9 yuan, corresponding to 2019 PE 40 times, maintain the "buy" rating.

The translation is provided by third-party software.

The above content is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice related to Futu. Although we strive to ensure the truthfulness, accuracy, and originality of all such content, we cannot guarantee it.

证通电子(002197)重大事项点评：IDC中标平安26亿大单 IDC＋生态战略稳步推进

Comments on the major issues of Zhengtong Electronics (002197): IDC has won the bid Ping an 2.6 billion large single IDC+ ecological strategy has been steadily advanced.

Risk Disclaimer

Statement