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鹏博士(600804)重大事件快评:战略放弃固网宽带 聚焦IDC及海缆运营

國信證券 ·  Mar 20, 2019 00:00  · Researches

Matters: Recently, the Guoxin Securities Communications Group invited Dr. Peng's company executives for a conference call. Dr. Peng is in a critical period of strategic transformation, and the company's fundamentals have changed greatly. In order to make it easier for everyone to keep abreast of the company's latest developments, we have specially shared the communication notes with all investors for reference only. Comment: Guoxin Communications's opinion: 1) The company strategically abandoned direct competition with operators in the fixed network broadband field and switched to providing them with installation, maintenance and agency services, which is conducive to mutual benefit and win-win situation, and short-term market concerns are resolved; 2) The company is one of the first companies to engage in IDC business, has deep accumulation in the IDC industry, and will begin to accelerate the development of IDC business in 2019, making up for the decline in the company's short-term performance due to the decline in fixed network broadband business; 3) The company cooperated with Facebook and Google to build The submarine cable project is expected to be completed within the year, becoming a new growth point for the company's performance; 4) The company's scarce resources in the backbone network and access network are also expected to play an important role in 5G edge computing, sharing the huge industry dividends of 5G construction; 5) Investment suggestions: We are optimistic about the company's current strategic adjustments and not considering the submarine cable operating business revenue for the time being. It is estimated that the company's revenue in 18-20 will be 66/58/53 billion yuan, respectively, and net profit of 3.9/3.6/3.3 billion yuan. The current stock price corresponding to dynamic PE is 41/44/49x, giving it an “increased holding” rating; 6 ) Risk warning: The construction progress of the submarine cable project falls short of expectations; competition in the IDC industry intensifies, and investment progress falls short of expectations; business development such as edge computing falls short of expectations; and operating risks such as company cash flow or corporate bonds of major shareholders.

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