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百川能源(600681):分红比例连超50% 19年股息率有望达到4.5%

方正證券 ·  Mar 21, 2019 00:00  · Researches

Event: The company's shareholders' meeting approved the 2018 profit distribution plan. The company will transfer 4 shares for every 10 shares and distribute 5 yuan (tax included). Comment: In 2018, there will be a dividend of 516 million yuan, with a dividend rate of over 50% for two consecutive years. The company will hold a shareholders' meeting on the 21st to review and approve the 2018 profit distribution plan. The company will distribute a cash dividend of RMB 5 (including tax) for every 10 shares based on the total share capital at the time of implementation of the 2018 profit distribution plan, and increase the share capital by 4 shares for every 10 shares. According to the calculation of the company's current total share capital of 1,032 million yuan, this dividend will reach 516 million yuan, reaching 51.1% of the company's net profit of 1.01 billion yuan in 2018. The dividend implemented by the company in 2017 was a cash dividend of RMB 4.5 (tax included) for every 10 shares. The total dividend amount reached 464 million yuan, reaching 53.6% of the company's net profit for that year. For two years in a row, the company's dividends have exceeded 50% of the net profit of the current year, and no major capital expenses are expected in 2019. Assuming that the company's dividend in 2019 continues to reach 50% of net profit, according to our forecast, the cash dividend will be 640 million yuan. Based on the current market value of 141 billion yuan, the company's dividend rate will reach 4.54%. The business has expanded smoothly, and the net operating cash flow is expected to reach 1.8 billion yuan. All of the company's businesses will maintain rapid growth in 2018. During the reporting period, the company completed gas sales volume of 970 million square meters, an increase of 111% over the previous year, and achieved gas sales revenue of 2.4 billion yuan, an increase of 120.9% over the previous year; completed gas connections to about 330,000 households, an increase of 25% over the previous year; and achieved gas connection revenue of 1.44 billion yuan, an increase of 26.8% over the previous year. The company's accounts receivable in 2018 were 1,293 billion yuan, and the proportion of accounts receivable in operating income fell from 37.6% to 27.2%; the company's net operating cash flow reached 1.22 billion yuan, reaching 1.2 times net profit. As repayments from the company's rural coal-to-gas business accelerate, the company's net operating cash flow is expected to reach 1.8 billion yuan in 2019, an increase of about 50% over the previous year, reaching 1.4 times the net profit. The entire national industry chain continues to be laid out, and internal generation and extension have worked together to gradually implement the entire national industry chain layout since the company went public. Upstream: The Huludao Suizhong LNG receiving station project prepared by the company has now been approved by Liaoning Province and officially submitted to the state for approval. Downstream: The company successively acquired gas projects in Jingzhou and Fuyang prefecture-level cities in '17 and 18, rapidly expanding its business map. The urban gas industry is in a stage of rapid development and reshuffle. The company will actively carry out mergers and acquisitions of high-quality urban fuel assets and lay out the national market. The comprehensive layout of the company's upstream, middle and downstream industrial chains initially formed a closed loop. Endogenesis and epitaxial work together to build a large-scale gas group in the entire national industry chain. The performance in 19-20 continued to grow, and the bottom of the valuation continues to be highly recommended 1) Benefiting from the increase in industrial, commercial and residential users and the Fuyang project schedule for the whole year, the gas supply is expected to exceed 1.4 billion square meters in 2019, an increase of more than 40% over the previous year. 2) It is expected that the company's resident connection business in '19 will be basically the same as in '18. Industrial and commercial connections will continue to grow, and the gas appliance sales business will be basically stable. 3) It is expected that the company will continue to implement mergers and acquisitions projects. We expect the company's net profit of 1.27 billion/1.47 billion yuan in 2019-20, corresponding to PE of 11.2 times /9.7 times. At the same time, we expect the 2019 dividend rate to reach 4.54%, high growth, low valuation, and high dividends, and continue to be highly recommended. Risk warning: gas industry policy risk; natural gas terminal price and connection fee price fluctuation risk; market development and business development falling short of expectations

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