Comments on Shanghai Energy (600508) Annual report: profits in 2018 increased by 27% compared with the same period last year. Coal power projects under construction continue to advance.

廣發證券 · Mar 18, 2019 00:00 · Researches

公司2018 年业绩同比增长27.4%，18Q4 亏损主要受资产减值等影响

公司2018 年实现归母净利6.6 亿元，同比增长27.4%，折合每股收益0.92元。分季度来看，2018Q1-4 分别实现归母净利3.4、2.6、1.5 和-1.0 亿元，业绩季度环比下降主要是：一方面，2018 年下半年以来成本提升较快（2018Q1-4 营业成本分别为10.6、10.4、12.8 和13.5 亿元，而单季度营业收入相对平稳）。

另一方面，公司在2018 年计提资产减值4.8 亿元，主要集中在18Q4 针对铝加工和发电业务计提：存货减值准备1701 万元（主要是铝加工产品）、固定资产减值准备3.7 亿元（主要针对铝板带厂和电厂）和无形资产减值9933.5 万元（主要针对挂牌出售的玉泉煤业采矿权）。

2018 年净利率和ROE 提升至8.5%和7.2%，负债率小幅回落至35%

公司2018 年各业务整体毛利率为31.0%，同比下降3.6 个百分点，主要是受电力和其他业务影响。2018 年期间费用率为13.9%，同比增加1.8 个百分点，主要是管理费用同比增加1.8 亿元（其中职工薪酬同比增加约1.5 亿元）。2018 年净利率和ROE 分别为8.5%和7.2%，同比增加3.5 和1.2 个百分点。2018 年底资产负债率为35.0%，2014 年以来持续回落。

2018 年煤炭产销量同比小幅下降，18Q4 吨煤成本提升较快

2018 年：根据公司经营数据公告，公司煤炭产销量分别为778.6 万吨和535.6万吨，同比小幅减少0.9%和2.0%。其中精煤产量520.7 万吨，同比减少3.9%。根据我们测算，公司吨煤收入和成本分别为978 元和523 元，同比分别提升7.1%和4.1%。吨煤毛利455 元，同比提升10.7%。2018Q4：公司煤炭产销量分别为184.8 万吨和113.8 万吨，环比减少6.5%和18.5%，同比减少3.3%和增加9.1%。根据我们测算，吨煤收入和成本分别为1033元和657 元，环比提升8.9%和24.8%，吨煤成本提升较快。

苇子沟煤矿已获发改委核准，新建电力装机项目有望上半年投入试运转

根据公司年报，目前公司拥有3 个生产煤矿，年核定产能805 万吨，煤种为1/3 焦煤、气煤和肥煤。在建新疆项目已有进展，其中，苇子沟煤矿一期工程（240万吨）2019 年1 月获得国家发改委核准，而106 煤矿（一期产能120 万吨，总产能180 万吨）正在采矿许可证正在办理中。截至2018 年底，2 个煤矿工程进度分别为36.2%和97.5%。此外，山西玉泉煤业70%股权及相关债权仍在挂牌转让中。

电力业务方面，公司徐州生产基地的坑口电厂总装机444MW，按照江苏省发展改革委下发《关于核准中煤大屯热电“上大压小”新建项目的批复》，公司预计2019 年陆续关停两台135MW 机组（6、7 号机组）、两台12MW（4、5 号机组）、两台15MW 机组（8、9 号机组）。而新建第一台350MW 机组于2019 年1 月通过168 小时满负荷试运行，第二台350MW 机组于2019 年2 月被国家发改委和能源局确定为煤电应急调峰储备电源机组，有望于2019 年上半年投入试运转。

盈利预测与投资评级

近几年公司煤炭业务盈利快速恢复至2011-2012 年水平，但电解铝和电力业务盈利下滑，目前公司已针对这部分资产计提减值，后续对公司经营业绩影响有望减小。而通过上大压小，电力业务也有望逐步减亏。中长期来看，公司煤炭在建产能近420 万吨，相当于目前在产产能的一半，成长空间也较大。预计2019-2021 年公司EPS 分别为1.29 元、1.34 元和1.39 元，目前PB 仅约0.8 倍（行业平均PB约1.2 倍，而公司历史平均PB 约2.3 倍），公司目前估值较低，我们认为公司PB估值恢复至1.0 倍相对合理，基于2018 年底每股净资产，我们测算公司合理价值为13.2 元，维持“增持”评级。

风险提示：宏观经济增速低于预期，煤价超预期下跌，煤矿和电厂建设进展低于预期，公司成本费用过快上涨。

In 2018, the company's performance increased by 27.4% compared with the same period last year, and the loss of 18Q4 was mainly affected by the impairment of assets.

In 2018, the company realized a net profit of 660 million yuan, an increase of 27.4 percent over the same period last year, or 0.92 yuan per share. From a quarterly point of view, 2018Q1-4 achieved a net profit of 3.4,2.6,1.5 and-100 million yuan respectively, with a quarter-on-quarter decline mainly due to: on the one hand, costs have increased rapidly since the second half of 2018 (operating costs of 2018Q1-4 were 10.6,10.4,12.8 and 1.35 billion yuan respectively, while single-quarter operating income was relatively stable).

On the other hand, the company's asset impairment of 480 million yuan in 2018, mainly focused on 18Q4 for aluminum processing and power generation business provision: inventory impairment provision of 17.01 million yuan (mainly aluminum processing products), fixed assets impairment provision of 370 million yuan (mainly for aluminum strip plants and power plants) and intangible assets impairment of 99.335 million yuan (mainly for listing and sale of Yuquan coal mining rights).

Net interest rate and ROE rose to 8.5% and 7.2% in 2018, while debt ratio fell slightly to 35%.

The company's overall gross profit margin of each business in 2018 was 31.0%, down 3.6 percentage points from the same period last year, mainly due to the impact of power and other businesses. During 2018, the expense rate was 13.9%, an increase of 1.8% over the same period last year, mainly due to an increase of 180 million yuan in management expenses (of which the salary of employees increased by about 150 million yuan compared with the same period last year). The net interest rate and ROE in 2018 were 8.5% and 7.2% respectively, up 3.5% and 1.2% from the same period last year. The asset-liability ratio at the end of 2018 was 35.0%. It has been falling since 2014.

In 2018, coal production and sales decreased slightly compared with the same period last year, and the cost per ton of 18Q4 coal increased rapidly.

2018: according to the company's operating data announcement, the company's coal production and sales were 7.786 million tons and 5.356 million tons respectively, a slight decrease of 0.9% and 2.0% compared with the same period last year. Of this total, clean coal output was 5.207 million tons, down 3.9% from the same period last year. According to our estimates, the company's revenue and cost per ton of coal are 978 yuan and 523 yuan respectively, up 7.1% and 4.1% respectively over the same period last year. Gross profit per ton of coal was 455 yuan, an increase of 10.7% over the same period last year. 2018Q4: the company's coal production and sales were 1.848 million tons and 1.138 million tons respectively, down 6.5% and 18.5% month-on-month, 3.3% and 9.1% higher than the same period last year. According to our estimates, the revenue and cost per ton of coal are 1033 yuan and 657 yuan respectively, an increase of 8.9% and 24.8% over the previous month, and the cost per ton of coal has increased rapidly.

Weizigou Coal Mine has been approved by the National Development and Reform Commission, and the new electric power installation project is expected to be put into trial operation in the first half of the year.

According to the company's annual report, the company currently has three production mines with an annual approved production capacity of 8.05 million tons and coal types of 1x3 coking coal, gas coal and fat coal. Progress has been made in the construction of the Xinjiang project, in which the first phase of the Weizigou coal mine project (2.4 million tons) was approved by the National Development and Reform Commission in January 2019, while the 106coal mine (first phase production capacity of 1.2 million tons, with a total capacity of 1.8 million tons) is being processed for mining license. By the end of 2018, the progress of the two coal mine projects was 36.2% and 97.5% respectively. In addition, 70% of the equity and related claims of Shanxi Yuquan Coal Industry are still under sale.

Power business, the company Xuzhou production base of the pit mouth power plant 444MW, according to the Jiangsu Development and Reform Commission issued "approval of Datun thermal power plant in China Coal" on the big pressure small "new project approval", the company is expected to shut down two 135MW units (6, 7 units), two 12MW (4, 5 units), two 15MW units (8, 9 units) in 2019. The first newly built 350MW unit passed 168h full load trial operation in January 2019, and the second 350MW unit was identified as a coal power emergency peak regulation reserve power unit by the National Development and Reform Commission and the Energy Administration in February 2019, and is expected to be put into trial operation in the first half of 2019.

Profit Forecast and Investment rating

In recent years, the company's coal business profits have quickly returned to the 2011-2012 level, but the profits of electrolytic aluminum and power business have declined. At present, the company has calculated impairment for these assets, and the subsequent impact on the company's operating performance is expected to be reduced. And through the big pressure on the small, the power business is also expected to gradually reduce losses. In the medium and long term, the company has a coal production capacity of nearly 4.2 million tons under construction, equivalent to half of the current production capacity, and has more room for growth. The company's EPS is expected to be 1.29,1.34 and 1.39 yuan respectively in 2019-2021, and the current PB is only about 0.8 times (the industry average PB is about 1.2 times, while the company's historical average PB is about 2.3 times). The company's current valuation is low, and we think it is relatively reasonable for the company's PB valuation to return to 1.0 times. Based on the net assets per share at the end of 2018, we estimate the reasonable value of the company at 13.2 yuan and maintain the "overweight" rating.

Risk hints: macroeconomic growth is lower than expected, coal prices fall faster than expected, progress in coal mine and power plant construction is lower than expected, and corporate costs rise too quickly.

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上海能源(600508)年报点评：2018年盈利同比增长27% 煤电在建项目持续推进

Comments on Shanghai Energy (600508) Annual report: profits in 2018 increased by 27% compared with the same period last year. Coal power projects under construction continue to advance.

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