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证通电子(002197)投资价值分析报告:粤港澳大湾区的IDC龙头

中信證券 ·  Mar 20, 2019 00:00  · Researches

The company's traditional financial electronics business stabilized, and IDC and cloud computing became new driving forces. The supply of IDC in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Bay Area is in short supply. The company has 15,000 IDC rack reserves and most of them are in the core area. The share of high-quality financial customers is rapidly increasing. As the number of IDC racks and listing rates both increase, and the performance of cloud computing/smart cities/smart parks under the IDC+ ecosystem is realized, performance is expected to reach an inflection point. We forecast that the 2018/2019/2020 EPS will be 0.01/0.32/0.46 yuan, and the EBITDA will be 1.69/3.94/513 million yuan, giving the 2019 target EV/EBITDA 21 times, corresponding to the target price of 12.90 yuan, corresponding to 40 times PE in 2019, covering the “buy” rating for the first time. The traditional main business declined, and IDC and cloud computing became the company's new driving force. The company's main business is divided into three segments: financial electronics, IDC & cloud computing, and LED lighting electronics; it developed steadily until 2016, revenue/profit gradually declined after 2017, the financial electronics business declined and was in urgent need of transformation, the focus of lighting electronics and revenue declined, and revenue declined, and IDC & cloud computing gradually became the driving force for growth. The transformation began in 2015 and continued to increase R&D investment and data center construction, and Hing'an Technology cooperated in depth. Currently, it has 15,000 IDC rack resource reserves, and is expected to become the leading IDC and cloud computing service provider in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area. The transformation of fintech is beginning to bear fruit, and traditional businesses have stabilized. Internet finance is impacting traditional payment methods. The trend of diversification of self-service terminals is obvious, and there is huge market space across industries; competition in the payment products industry is intense, and the intelligent transformation of POS machines is inevitable. As a leading financial electronics leader, the company has the largest industrialization base in the world. Based on its diverse product types and one-stop delivery capabilities, the company can fully build a “cloud+network+terminal+solution” ecosystem centered on secure payments. At present, cross-industry self-service terminals have received a large number of orders, and smart payment products have made breakthroughs overseas. The 15,000 racks are deeply deployed in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area to actively build an IDC+ ecosystem. The high increase in data center traffic/the failure of Moore's Law promotes long-term demand for IDC, and first-tier cities are in short supply; the rapid development of cloud computing is profoundly transforming the IT industry, and global/China may maintain 18%/30% growth; investment in smart cities/smart parks is growing rapidly, and there is huge room for growth. The company implements the “IDC+ Ecosystem” strategy: based on 15,000 racks in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area (expected to reach 30,000 in the future), and relying on China's leading securities and communication cloud platform, integrating various solutions such as smart finance, smart cities, and smart parks. It is expected to continue to add impetus to the company's future development. Risk factors: Fintech transformation falls short of expectations, and IDC rack expansion and listing rate growth are limited. Investment suggestion: The company has abundant IDC resources in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Bay Area and provides in-depth service to Ping An Technology. The double increase in the number of IDC racks and listing rate is expected to drive an inflection point in performance. We forecast that the 2018/2019/2020 EPS will be 0.01/0.32/0.46 yuan, and the EBITDA will be 1.69/3.94/513 million yuan, giving the 2019 target EV/EBITDA 21 times, corresponding to the target price of 12.90 yuan, corresponding to 40 times PE in 2019, covering the “buy” rating for the first time.

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