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双一科技(300690):风电装机量提升助力公司业绩触底回升

東吳證券 ·  Mar 18, 2019 00:00  · Researches

Investment points Leading domestic wind power composite materials supplier: The company specializes in composite materials manufacturing. The main products include wind turbine cabin covers, large non-metallic molds, construction vehicle hoods, passenger car covers, etc. Currently, the company's main source of revenue is wind power ancillary products. The main downstream customers are wind power OEMs. The main customers include leading wind power companies such as Vestas, Siemens Gamesa, and Goldwind Technology. The company is a manufacturer and supplier of high-quality materials upstream in the wind power industry chain. The recovery in wind power installations has contributed to an increase in order volume, and the performance in 2019 is expected to increase significantly: in 2018, due to the Siemens Gamesa merger, the company's order volume fell short of expectations; on the other hand, the prices of major chemical raw materials were high, and cost pressure was high; in addition, the cancellation of the Double One US calculated a bad debt of 10.69 million, leading to a significant decline in the company's performance. Looking ahead to 2019, the worst stage has passed. The rush to install wind power has arrived as scheduled, the company's order situation has improved markedly, and at the same time, the fund-raising production capacity has been successfully released. Performance growth in 2019 can be expected. According to the quarterly report forecast issued by the company, net profit for the first quarter of 2019 was 33 million yuan to 38 million yuan, up 96.05% to 125.75% year on year. In the long run, leading customers guarantee stable profits in the wind power sector, and the horizontal layout enhances overall competitiveness: after intense competition, wind power OEMs have gradually increased their market concentration. The company has a high penetration rate among leading OEMs and has strong customer stickiness. Orders in the wind power sector are guaranteed. In addition, relying on leading technical engineering experience and customer resources, the company has horizontally expanded new application fields such as vehicle parts and ships. The product range continues to be rich, and it is expected to form a comprehensive production platform for composite materials. Implement an employee incentive plan and establish a long-term incentive mechanism: On October 29, 2018, the company disclosed the restricted stock incentive plan (draft) and has basically completed the grant. The incentive plan covered 90 executives, middle managers and core technical backbone, and granted 1,9146.67 million shares of restricted stock at a price of 92,2226 yuan per share. The performance assessment was based on an average net profit of 106.8619 million yuan for the three years from 15 to 17. The company's net profit growth rate from 19 to 21 was not less than 10%, 23%, and 42%, respectively, and the return on net assets was not less than 10%. The corresponding net profit was not less than 11736.52, 13123.57, and 151,5078 million yuan, respectively. The high profit base established by the incentive plan also shows the company's confidence in future performance growth. Profit forecast and investment rating: We expect the company's operating income in 2019-2021 to be 796 million yuan, 1,091 million yuan and 1,400 million yuan respectively, net profit of 139 million yuan, 175 million yuan and 216 million yuan respectively, and EPS of 1.25 yuan, 1.58 yuan and 1.94 yuan respectively. The PE corresponding to the current stock price is 19X, 15 and 12X respectively. First coverage, giving a “buy” rating. Risk warning: The growth rate of the wind power industry falls short of expectations, the progress of fund-raising projects falls short of expectations, and there is a risk that shareholders will reduce their holdings.

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