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深圳新星(603978)首次覆盖报告:铝晶粒细化剂龙头 未来成长性仍被低估

國泰君安 ·  Mar 18, 2019 00:00  · Researches

Introduction to this report: The company's growth is actually underestimated: the release of high-end refining agent products will significantly increase profitability; the potassium fluoroaluminate market has huge potential space and considerable import substitution space for high-purity hydrogen fluoride. Both are expected to open up new growth space. Key investment points: The first coverage gives an increase in holdings rating. The market believes that the market share of the company's main product, aluminum grain refining agents, is already high, and we believe that the company's growth potential is still underestimated: 1) The gradual release of high-end refiner products will significantly increase processing costs, and profitability will be greatly enhanced; ② Potassium fluoroaluminate, a fluorochemical product, can effectively solve the problem of high energy consumption in aluminum production. The potential market space is considerable, and high-purity hydrogen fluoride technology has high barriers, and there is huge room for import substitution. Both are expected to open up new growth space for the company. The company's 2018-2020 EPS is expected to be 0.73/1.08/1.25 yuan per share, respectively, and the comprehensive PE and PB valuation methods give a target price of 33.0 yuan, corresponding to the 2018-2020 PE of 45/31/26 times, respectively. The current market space is 32%, covering the first time. The volume of high-end refiner products has been released, and the profitability is still underestimated. The company's aluminum grain refiner production capacity is expected to reach 90,000 tons/year in 2020, a sharp increase of 200% from the initial 30,000 tons. It is estimated that the company's refiner processing costs in 2015-2017 increased by about 8,343/8550/8658 yuan/ton, respectively. It is estimated that this is mainly due to the increase in the share of high-end products. We believe that in the future, as high-end products are further released, the company's refiner processing costs will still have a lot of room to increase, and profitability is expected to increase significantly. Potassium fluoroaluminate and high-purity hydrogen fluoride are expected to open up new growth space. It is estimated that the potential market demand for potassium fluoroaluminate will reach about 120,000 tons in 2020, and the company's market share is expected to reach 50%, and the potential market space is huge; while high-purity hydrogen fluoride is an important consumable material for the semiconductor, photovoltaic and other industries, technical barriers are high, and it is currently mainly imported domestically. The company's hydrogen fluoride project is expected to replace imports after it is put into operation. We believe that with the advantages of the entire fluorine chemical industry chain, potassium fluoroaluminate and hydrogen fluoride will open up new profit space for the company. Catalysts: High-end products of aluminum grain refining agents are continuously released, and projects such as high-purity hydrogen fluoride are successfully put into operation Risk warning: Risk that the project will not advance as expected

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