Events:
The company issued a notice: recently received the State Drug Administration issued nadroparin calcium injection drug registration approval, including 0.3ml and 0.6ml two specifications.
Main points of investment:
Naqu heparin calcium is the main variety of low molecular weight heparin with considerable market potential.
Nadroparin calcium is one of the three main low molecular weight heparin preparations, which accounts for the largest proportion of heparin preparations in domestic sample hospitals (declared according to low molecular weight heparin calcium in the previous stage). Thrombin Ⅲ mainly inhibits the activity of coagulation factor Xa and thrombin, which has the advantages of strong antithrombotic effect and less side effects. According to PDB data, the sales of nadroparin (plus low molecular weight heparin calcium) in the sample hospital in 2018 was 819 million yuan, up 23.98% from the same period last year, while that of Natroheparin alone was 393 million yuan, up 58.78% from the same period last year. In terms of market competition pattern, Changshan Pharmaceutical Industry (plus low molecular weight heparin calcium) was the largest in the sample hospitals in 2018, with a market share of 30.77%, followed by GSK, accounting for 25.64%. From the perspective of Natroheparin alone, GSK accounted for the largest proportion in 2018, reaching 53.55%, followed by Dongcheng Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd., accounting for 28.52%.
The company was successfully approved to further enrich the variety of low molecular weight heparin.
The acquisition of the registration approval of Naqu heparin further enriches the company's heparin series product line, together with the previously approved enoxaparin and dahparin sodium, the company has a complete low molecular weight heparin product pipeline, which is on a par with other major heparin enterprises in China. From the market competition pattern, the share of the three main low molecular weight heparin original research manufacturers is relatively large, considering the pricing advantage, we think that the company is expected to benefit from the domestic substitution process to seize the original research share, so as to open product sales and bring new growth points.
Maintain the recommended rating.
To maintain the previous forecast, the EPS from 2018 to 2020 is expected to be 0.17,0.22,0.27 yuan respectively. At present, the export price of heparin sodium raw materials remains high, coupled with innovative drugs are expected to be harvested one after another, long-term optimistic about the development of the company, maintain the "recommended" rating.
Risk tips: sales promotion is not up to expectations; research and development is not up to expectations; product prices are reduced, etc.