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翰宇药业(300199):经营质量向好 多肽新产能释放

財通證券 ·  Oct 24, 2018 00:00  · Researches

Accounts receivable began to decline, and the quality of operations improved. The company achieved operating income of 905 million yuan (+27%), a growth rate of 8 pct lower than the first half of the year; realized net profit of 294 million yuan (+25%), net profit after deduction of 274 million yuan (+21%), and the growth rate decreased 5.5 pct from the first half of the year. Net cash flow from operating activities was $193 million. EPS is 0.32 yuan (+28%), and the sharp increase in earnings per share compared to net profit is due to stock repurchases. Also, it is particularly noteworthy that accounts receivable were 1.13 billion dollars, a decrease of 126 million from the previous quarter, and the quality of operations is improving. Segmentation: Overseas markets are growing rapidly, with overseas revenue of 272 million yuan (+70%) in the first three quarters. The company's orders are saturated throughout the year. As overseas patents for major products such as liraglutide and glatirone expire, the company's high-end generic drug business will enter a stage of rapid growth. As the API production base of the Wuhan subsidiary is put into use, the pressure on API production capacity will be greatly reduced in the future. Domestic pharmaceutical products achieved sales revenue of 4.64 (+51%) in the first three quarters. Excluding high development factors, the growth rate is expected to be around 15%; device products have revenue of 99 million yuan (-43%) in the first three quarters, and combined drug packaging revenue of 64 million yuan (-8%). Many of the injectables in the company's product pipeline will combine clinical use with Jinji Pharmaceutical device products, and have an efficient synergistic effect with Chengji Pharmaceutical products. With the gradual implementation of the company's product pipeline, collaborative development with Cheng Ji will be further expanded. The main growth point in the medium term is that liraglutide is progressing domestically and internationally, and it is expected that the first domestic liraglutide will be marketed in 2019. The domestic market space for GLP-1 drugs is at least close to 3 billion yuan. Huadong Pharmaceutical and Hanyu Pharmaceutical are in the process of filing declarations. We believe that China will refer to the US FDA regulations on long-chain polypeptide drugs in accordance with chemical drug approval regulations. Hanyu Pharmaceutical only needs a similar BE test before it can be marketed. Currently, in clinical trials, it is likely that it will become the first liraglutide generic drug marketed in China in 2019. The TEVA liraglutide patent challenge is about to expire in mid-2019, and the launch of generic drugs by Hanyu Pharmaceutical's customers will accelerate. It is expected that in the future, more than 600 kg of APIs will be added after generic drugs are marketed. Assuming that Hanyu Pharmaceutical accounts for more than 30% of the market share of chemically synthesized raw materials, demand for APIs will reach 200kg or more. Assuming that the purchase price of APIs is 1-1.5 million US dollars/kg, the API market demand is 2-3 billion US dollars, which will increase net profit by 0.8-180 million US dollars. Investment rating: The company's 2018-2020 EPS is expected to be 0.48/0.79/1.24 yuan, respectively, and the corresponding PE is 21/13/8 times, maintaining the “buy” investment rating. Risk warning: risk of bad debts on accounts receivable; risk of impairment of Chengji Pharmaceutical;

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