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中粮生化(000930):燃料乙醇人大会议再被提及 全面推广进入倒计时

聯訊證券 ·  Mar 14, 2019 00:00  · Researches

Matters: Yue Guojun, a deputy to the National People's Congress and an Academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering, who attended the two sessions, said in an interview with reporters on the 13th that the top-level design and strategic coordination for the development of the biofuel ethanol industry in China have been basically improved, but there are still problems in the policy implementation process. It is proposed to speed up the production capacity layout and market promotion of biofuel ethanol, and put forward six specific countermeasures. Comment: Currently, only Shanxi and Tianjin have implemented comprehensive promotion of fuel ethanol in the country. It is expected that other provinces and cities will accelerate policy implementation progress. On September 13, 2017, 15 departments including the National Development and Reform Commission, the National Energy Administration, and the Ministry of Finance jointly issued the “Implementation Plan on Expanding Biofuel Ethanol Production and Promoting the Use of Ethanol Gasoline for Vehicles”. According to the plan, by 2020, the country will basically achieve full coverage of automotive ethanol gasoline. In June last year, the Tianjin Municipal Government took the lead in issuing the “Tianjin Municipal Implementation Plan for Promoting the Use of Ethanol Gasoline for Vehicles”, which requires the entire city to promote ethanol gasoline, and officially implement it on September 30. In March of this year, the Shanxi provincial government issued a notice on the promotion of ethanol gasoline for vehicles throughout the province and the implementation schedule. It is requested that comprehensive promotion be achieved throughout the province from January 1, 2020. Economically active regions, including Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangdong, have yet to introduce relevant policies. Considering the urgency of time, it is expected that other provinces and cities will speed up implementation of policies during the year. Fuel ethanol is the most successful biomass energy alternative in the world. Countries and regions such as the US, Brazil, and the European Union have formed mature industries. Fuel ethanol is the most successful biomass energy alternative in the world, and has formed mature energy industries in the US, Brazil, the European Union and other countries and regions. Take the US as an example. The US is the world's largest producer of corn and also the world's largest producer of fuel ethanol. According to EIA statistics, 142 billion gallons of finished gasoline consumed in the US in 2017 contained about 144 billion gallons of fuel ethanol, which is equivalent to 10% of the total gasoline consumption of finished cars. Since the 70s, the US government has continuously promoted the industrialization of fuel ethanol through legislation. For example, the “1978 National Energy Law” stipulates the amount of fuel ethanol used and clearly implements fuel ethanol energy standards throughout the United States; the “2005 National Energy Policy Act” stipulates the minimum amount of biofuel used in the US every year over the next few years, and adopts fiscal and tax incentives for fuel ethanol, and uses a certain percentage of the budget to invest in fuel ethanol technology research and development every year. The fuel ethanol outbreak has entered the countdown. The market gap is huge. The apparent domestic gasoline consumption in 2017 is about 122 million tons. Assuming a 5% demand growth rate, the country's gasoline consumption demand is expected to reach 141 million tons by 2020. If full coverage of automotive ethanol gasoline is achieved at that time, the demand for the corresponding fuel ethanol exceeds 14 million tons according to E10 standards, the industry explosion will enter the countdown. Currently, the domestic fuel ethanol production is only 2.6 million tons per year, the self-sufficiency rate is less than 20%, and the market gap is huge. The integration of corporate group assets has been completed, and the leader has officially set sail, maintaining the “buy” rating. The company relies on COFCO Group. It is a domestic corn deep processing platform enterprise, with an original biofuel ethanol production capacity of 750,000 tons. In December of last year, the company issued shares to purchase group assets. The fuel ethanol production capacity reached 1.35 million tons, and the domestic market share reached half, making it a veritable fuel ethanol leader. As the promotion of ethanol gasoline for vehicles continues to be implemented across the country, the company's fuel ethanol business is expected to continue to explode. Considering mergers and tables, the company is expected to achieve net profit of 4.94/6.27/831 million yuan and EPS of 0.27/0.34/0.45 yuan in 18-20, corresponding to PE32.9/26.1/19.7 times, and maintain the “buy” rating. Risks indicate fluctuations in corn prices, fluctuations in crude oil prices, cancellation of subsidy policies, and poor promotion of automotive ethanol

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