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双一科技(300690):业绩反转之际 市场景气之时 Q1业绩大超预期

中信建投證券 ·  Mar 12, 2019 00:00  · Researches

The incident company issued a performance announcement. Revenue in 2018 was 536 million yuan, down 9.8% year on year; net profit to mother was 87.89 million yuan, down 20.5% year on year; 2019Q1 achieved net profit to mother of 33 to 38 million yuan, an increase of 96.0% to 127.8% year on year. All shareholders receive a cash dividend of 4.50 yuan (tax included) for every 10 shares. A brief review of core customer business integration led to a decline in 2018 performance. It still insisted on high dividends. Siemens Gamesa, the company's two major customers, began business integration and commercial negotiations with the company on a new cooperation agreement, and determined that new orders for Siemens Gamesa will be placed after October 2018. Affected by this factor, the company's orders from the merged Siemens Gamesa in the 1st to 3rd quarter decreased compared to the same period in previous years, leading to a decline in the company's annual operating income and a decline in net profit. In terms of sales volume, the sales volume of wind power accessories in 2018 was 2083 units, down 20.80% year on year; in terms of gross margin, due to the increase in product prices of raw materials epoxy resin and glass fiber in 2018 (taking epoxy resin as an example, the average price in 2018 was 22,000 yuan/ton, up 20.4% year on year), the gross margins of wind power accessories and mold categories were 35.07% and 42.54%, respectively, down 8.67 and 5.42 percentage points year on year. In terms of three fees, the sales expense ratio, financial expense ratio, and management expenses plus R&D expenses ratio were 7.38%, -0.60%, and 11.79%, respectively, with year-on-year changes of -2.31, -1.74, and +1.62 percentage points, respectively. In terms of dividends, the company continued to pay a high dividend. In 2018, the company paid a cash dividend of 4.50 yuan for every 10 shares, totaling 49.92 million yuan in cash, accounting for 56.8% of net profit attributable to mother. At the time of the reversal of 2019 results, when the market sentiment surpassed expectations, the company's Q1 performance in 2019 greatly exceeded expectations, with a growth rate of 96%-128%. The main reason was that orders for the fourth quarter of the previous year concentrated on confirming revenue during the reporting period, and with the recovery of the wind power industry, the company's orders for wind power blade molds and wind turbine hatch products increased. On the one hand, judging from the industry sentiment, according to the “Notice on Actively Promoting Work Related to Unsubsidized and Affordable Internet Access for Wind Power and Photovoltaic Power Generation”, affordable access to wind power will be implemented after 2021, and 2019-2020 will usher in a wave of wind power rush, and industry sentiment will improve. At the same time, based on the continued pursuit of offshore wind power and new energy sources, overseas orders also continued to grow. According to the Vestas Annual Report, the impact of the integration of Siemens Gamesa in 2018 was completely eliminated; on the other hand, from the company's own perspective, the impact of Siemens Gamesa integration in 2019 completely disappeared. The company's orders are expected to be fully filled, and performance is reversed. The fund-raising project continues to be implemented. In order to solve the company's production capacity bottleneck, the fund-raising project was put into operation one after another. The annual output of 100,000 auto parts projects completed land acquisition, plant construction and the introduction of key equipment, and achieved an output of 10 million sales revenue in 2018; the large-scale non-metallic mold and wind turbine hatch project has already landed in Yancheng, and the company currently leased a plant of 12,000 square meters. The production of two sets of wind turbine blade molds and ten sets of large-scale offshore wind turbine hatch products was completed in 2018. acres, The construction of 4 plants will, on the one hand, meet the production of large-scale non-metallic molds and cabin cover products for offshore wind power, and on the other hand, use the transportation advantages of Dafeng Port to lay out the production capacity needs of overseas markets, and lay out the “two seas strategy”. The company introduced an excellent team with superior technology and experience in yacht market operation, and jointly registered Shandong Shuangyi Yacht Co., Ltd., 70% of Shuangyi Technology Holdings. Shuangyi Yacht plans to introduce more than 30 advanced production equipment (sets), 43 patented boat design and production technologies, 18 sets of boat production molds and related supporting facilities, and 32 ship-related product certifications, which are mainly sold to the US, Canada, Australia, New Zealand and other markets. After completion, the project is expected to achieve a production scale of 2,000 sets of yachts and accessories per year. The company continues to increase composite materials for yachts and vehicles to build new impetus for growth. We expect the company to achieve net profit of 180 million and 240 million in 2019-2020. The corresponding PE is 15X and 11X, respectively, covered for the first time, and given a purchase rating.

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