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双一科技(300690):全球风电复合材料龙头 装机潮中的弄潮儿

中信建投證券 ·  Mar 13, 2019 00:00  · Researches

Global leader in wind power composites, with a comprehensive layout, most of the downstream products of leading customer companies are wind power, and the global market share of engine cabin covers is about 10%. Major customers include global leaders such as Vestas, Siemens Gamesa, and Goldwind Technology. The company's production of wind power ancillary and mold products in 2018 was 2203 sets and 26,899 square meters respectively. The production capacity under construction includes 1000 sets of wind turbine hood covers and 25 sets of blade molds. Production is expected to be gradually put into operation in 2019-2020. Performance declined due to delays in orders from major customers. The rebound and recovery momentum was strong, and the company's net profit fell by 20.5% in 2018, mainly due to a decrease in orders in the first three quarters due to the merger and integration of Siemens Gamesa. Orders for Siemens Gamesa have resumed since October 2018. Due to the low base for 2018, 2019 benefited from the restoration of orders from major customers on the one hand, and the warming of the wind power industry on the other. The company's performance rebounded and the momentum was strong. The company expects net profit of 3300-38 million yuan in 2019Q1, an increase of 96%-126% over the previous year. The company's main supplier of wind power to major domestic and foreign customers will greatly benefit from the cumulative installed capacity of 590 GW of global wind power in 2018 and 51.3 GW of installed capacity in 2018, a year-on-year decrease of 2.5%; the cumulative installed capacity of wind power in China was 209 GW, an increase of 21 GW, an increase of 6.8% over the previous year. China is already the largest wind power installed country. Wind power consumption continued to improve in 2018, and the wind abandonment rate has been reduced to 7%. Since the green energy quota system was implemented in 2019, and it has been approved that wind farms must start construction before the end of 2019 to enjoy electricity prices before the price reduction, it is expected that wind power will welcome the boom in wind power in 2019-2020. Judging from the tenders, the 2015-2017 public tender capacity was 18.7/28.4/27.2 GW, respectively. The public bidding volume for the first three quarters of 2018 has reached 23.9GW, and the industry's installed capacity is guaranteed for the next 3 years. Vestas and Siemens, the top 2 wind power manufacturers in the world, are the company's top two customers respectively. In recent years, the company has also cooperated more closely with leading domestic Goldwind Technology. The company's perfect layout for major global customers will fully benefit from the advent of wind power installations and increased industry concentration. Vestas, the company's largest customer, both new and ongoing orders reached new highs at the end of 2018, with increases of 27% and 36% respectively, laying a solid foundation for the company's new orders in 2019. Adding composite materials for yachts and vehicles to build a new impetus for growth As the number of ultra-high net worth people around the world continues to increase, the yacht market space is steadily expanding. The company originally had part of the yacht mold production capacity, and the fund-raising project also included the production capacity of 10 sets of yacht molds. It is expected to be put into production in 2020. Furthermore, the company's merger and acquisition of Double One Yacht in 2018 increased the yacht layout, and the yacht business will build a new impetus for the company's growth in the future. In the automotive industry, weight reduction, energy saving and environmental protection have become the main development directions. Automotive composites can effectively reduce the weight of automobiles, so demand is growing rapidly. The company produced nearly 3,500 construction vehicle covers in 2017, and the production capacity of 100,000 pieces of fund-raising projects is expected to be gradually put into production in 2019-2020. The central decline in the price of epoxy resin has led to a favorable cost side. Resin accounts for the largest share of the company's raw materials, mainly epoxy resin. Historically, the company's gross margin has been significantly negatively correlated with the price of epoxy resin. Entering 2019, although the price of epoxy resin has risen for a short period of time, the price center for the whole year is likely to be lower than in 2018, which is beneficial to the company's cost side. The company's net profit for 2019 and 2020 is estimated to be 181 million yuan and 239 million yuan respectively, corresponding to PE 16 and 12X, maintaining the buying rating. Risk analysis: risk of capacity investment falling short of expectations, risk of wind power policy changes, production safety risk, risk of large macroeconomic fluctuations.

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