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中体产业(600158):年报业绩略超预期 持续看好“体育 +”模式

財通證券 ·  Mar 11, 2019 00:00  · Researches

Event description: The company released the 2018 annual report: during the reporting period, the company achieved operating income of 1,450 million yuan, an increase of 32.75% over the previous year; the company achieved net profit of 84 million yuan, an increase of 44.38% over the previous year; and the company achieved net profit deducted from the mother of 82 million yuan, an increase of 45.62% over the previous year. Investment points: The company's main businesses are developing collaboratively, and the overall performance is beautiful. The company's main business is progressing steadily, and the net profit indicators are close to the performance forecast limit: the real estate sector achieved revenue of 751 million yuan, an increase of 40.36% over the previous year, gross margin of 18.69%, an increase of 1.49pct over the previous year; the sports sector achieved revenue of 561 million yuan, an increase of 27.66% over the previous year, and gross margin of 28.84%, a decrease of 1.58pct over the previous year. In the sports sector, event management and operation, stadium operation management, leisure and fitness, and brokerage achieved revenue of 2.08, 1.70, 0.46, and 86 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year increases of 48.12%, 12.85%, 14.22%, and 82.72%, respectively. The company's lottery-related business performance declined, revenue decreased 17.13% year over year, and gross margin was 32.46% (yoy -8.89pct). Among them, the increase in revenue from the event management and operation business mainly came from the Guangzhou Marathon program, and the increase in stadium operation management mainly came from the 2018 National Junior Athletics Championships and the 2018 Sports School U Series Athletics Competition. The sports industry is rich in resources, and the “sports+” model business expansion can be expected to improve the company's industrial chain value layout, strong overall competitiveness, and its “sports+” model is highly scalable. Regarding sports events activities and sports marketing related work, the company expects to focus on promoting the construction of national comprehensive sports market development capabilities represented by market development for the Beijing Winter Olympics, Shaanxi National Games, and Wuhan Military Games, and establishing a platform-based company mindset. In terms of sports space content and operation, the company will build a platform model with content and operation as the core, and integrate business units such as Chinese sports industry events, sports training, fitness and rehabilitation, smart sports, research and education, etc., to achieve the best integration of “sports consumption+high-quality IP” with sports space. In terms of sports lottery, on the basis of existing sports lottery hardware services, the company will provide specialized solutions for China's sports lottery business through the integration of China Sports Lottery Technology and China Sports Lottery Printing Company through the restructuring and acquisition of China Sports Lottery Technology and China Sports Lottery Printing Company. The target price is 13.4 yuan, and the “increase in holdings” rating is given as a listed company under the State Administration of Sports. The company has strong overall competitiveness in the field of sporting events and stadiums, and can be expected to advance steadily in various businesses; if subsequent major asset restructuring is successfully completed, the company's asset scale will be further expanded and profitability will improve. We expect the company's EPS for 2019-2021 to be 0.13 yuan, 0.16 yuan, and 0.20 yuan respectively, maintaining the target price of 13.4 yuan and giving it an “increase in holdings” rating. Risk warning: The risk that major asset restructuring may be suspended, suspended, adjusted or cancelled; the overall development of the sports industry falls short of expectations.

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