Forecast revenue / profit growth of 3.3% year-on-year in 2018
We expect the company's revenue / profit to grow by 3.3% / 1.6% in 2018 compared with the same period last year. After 17 years and the one-time contribution of the black felt hat and the Tang and Song dynasties, the company returned to endogenous growth in 18 years, and the positioning adjustment in the Tang and Song dynasties had a negative impact on income of about 50 million.
Pay attention to the main points
The company adopts the following strategy in the development of the main business of yellow rice wine, and the cost is relatively cautious to avoid the risk of performance fluctuation. As the yellow rice wine industry is still a regional minority of alcohol, in the process of going out of Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai, it needs a lot of cost investment, and is facing the uncertainty of income return. The company is relatively cautious and its followers are strategically positioned to expand outside the province in the form of local operation of the acquired brand and spot focus of the Huaiji Mountain brand.
In the mechanism of private enterprises, efficiency comes first. In 18 years, the Tang and Song dynasties were repositioned to replace production capacity and improve synergy. The Shanghai area also makes full use of the black felt hat channel to introduce the Huaiji Mountain brand.
The construction of the main production area of Shaoxing Hutang has been completed and put into production, and the integration of production, storage and filling can effectively reduce the operating cost.
The yellow rice wine industry is the main liquor sub-industry with the fastest growth in sales, but the scale of 2 million tons is still far behind that of beer and liquor. The urgent task of the industry is to find the growth point of quantity, and the growth of volume mainly comes from the markets outside Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai. Due to health, taste, culture and other factors, the demand for yellow rice wine begins to emerge spontaneously outside Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai, which urgently needs the active cultivation and guidance of enterprises, the promotion of channel layout and the promotion of innovation at the product level. in order to promote the further amplification of consumption atmosphere and demand. At present, the efforts of enterprises are still insufficient, but marginal improvements have been made, including Guyue Longshan's continuous investment in the market outside Zhejiang, and the continuous cultivation and expansion of new-style yellow rice wine such as Shazhou Youhuang and Dendrobium in the local market.
Valuation and suggestion
A slight reduction of 4.1% of the 18Universe 19-year-old EPS 3.0% Universe to 0.37-plus 0.42 yuan, and the introduction of 20-year EPS0.48. The target price is slightly reduced by 2.3% to 12.6 yuan, corresponding to 1920-2030-26x Pmax E, and the current price corresponds to 19Universe-2024-21x Pmax-E. The target price has 26% room for increase, and the recommendation is maintained.
Risk
If the company's operating style continues to be too conservative, revenue may fall short of expectations.