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赣能股份(000899):短期看增值税降低改善公司业绩 长期看江西用电紧张、丰电三期复工

天風證券 ·  Mar 11, 2019 00:00  · Researches

It is a thermal power company in Jiangxi Province. Fluctuations in coal prices and lower value-added tax have given the company a lot of room to improve its performance. The company is a power generation enterprise in Jiangxi Province. Currently, the largest shareholder is Jiangtou Group, and the second largest shareholder is SDIC Electric Power. The company's main business is thermal power. Currently, it operates the Fengcheng Phase II thermal power plant with an installed capacity of 2 x 700,000 kilowatts, and another 100,000 kilowatts of hydropower; in addition, the company still has Fengdian Phase III's 2 x 1 million kilowatt ultra-supercritical generator set under construction. Affected by the “11.24” major safety accident, the project is still under construction. Fluctuations in thermal coal prices have made the company's performance highly flexible. The company's power generation, feed-in electricity, and operating income have remained stable in recent years, but under the influence of fluctuations in thermal coal prices, the company's net profit elasticity is high. Investment income has significantly increased the company's profitability. The company's shareholding ratio of Changtai Expressway is 23.33%. Changtai Expressway is doing well, bringing good investment income to the company. The 2019 report on the work of the government proposed to reduce the value-added tax rate for the manufacturing industry from 16% to 13%. If the company's feed-in tariffs, including tax for thermal power, remain unchanged, the reduction in the value-added tax rate will improve the company's performance. The electricity market in Jiangxi Province is active, electricity supply and demand are tight, and demand for additional power sources is strong. In recent years, the secondary production of Jiangxi Province has grown steadily, and the electricity consumption of the three industries and residents has increased rapidly. The electricity consumption of the entire province has increased year by year. The average annual growth rate for the first three years of the “13th Five-Year Plan” reached 9.54%; in 2018, the electricity consumption of the entire province was 142,877 billion kilowatt-hours, an increase of 10.4% over the previous year. In the same period, the growth rate of new installed capacity in the province was slow, and the utilization hours of existing units increased year by year. Due to resource conditions and other factors, the power supply in Jiangxi Province is relatively single, mainly thermal power, and there are few other power sources; in recent years, new installations have mainly been new energy installations that use fewer hours, so the actual growth rate of equivalent installed capacity has been slow, and the utilization hours of existing units have increased markedly; in 2018, the number of hours used by standardized thermal power units in the province is 5197 hours, ranking first in the country. In the short term, it is difficult to ease the level of electricity consumption tension in Jiangxi Province, and demand for additional power sources is strong. Fengdian Phase III can solve the pressing electricity needs of Jiangxi. The company is making every effort to resume work on the Fengdian Phase III project. Fengdian Phase III is a wholly-owned company of the company. It will build a 2 x 1 million kilowatt ultra-supercritical coal-fired generator set. The total investment in project dynamics is about 7.67 billion yuan, of which the project capital is 1.53 billion yuan, accounting for about 20% of the dynamic investment. The overall progress of the Fengdian Phase III project was smooth before the shutdown, with a project investment of 1.7 billion yuan. Electricity consumption in Jiangxi Province is tight, and the company is making every effort to push for the resumption of work on the Fengdian Phase III project. 41 of the 42 supporting documents required for the commencement of construction have already been processed. After obtaining all the necessary supporting documents, the company will submit an application for resumption of work in order to resume work as soon as possible. The company raised 3.5 billion dollars in 2018. Currently, the balance ratio is only 38.21%. The balance ratio is low, and there is room for financing, so various financing methods can be used for future project construction. Profit forecast: We expect the company's operating income for 2018-2020 to be 2,525, 26.85, and 2,748 billion yuan respectively, and net profit of 2.04, 2.54 and 267 million yuan respectively, corresponding to EPS of 0.21, 0.26, and 0.27 yuan/share. Using a relative valuation method to value the company: In the past 52 weeks, Huaneng International, a leading company among listed thermal power companies, had a minimum PB of 1.21X and a maximum PB of 1.60X. Considering the company's actual operating conditions, we gave the company 1.5X PB in 2019, with a target stock price of 7.26 yuan, and a “buy” rating. Furthermore, we estimate that after the full commissioning of Fengdian Phase III, the price of 840 yuan/ton of coal used in 4800, it is estimated that after Fengdian Phase III is fully put into operation, it will increase the company's net profit by 350 million yuan. Risk warning: coal prices continue to fluctuate at a high level, electricity consumption in the province falls short of expectations, electricity prices are lowered

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