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宏润建设(002062):在手订单充裕 深耕长三角区域

興業證券 ·  Mar 11, 2019 00:00  · Researches

The company is a leading private enterprise in municipal engineering in China. Its business includes construction business such as municipal roads and bridges, rail transit, real estate development business, new energy business, and investment business. It is the first private enterprise in China to carry out underground shield construction for urban rail transit. It has a high threshold of core technology and can provide integrated solutions and services for project investment and financing, planning and design, construction, and operation management. In recent years, the growth rate of the main construction industry has changed from negative to positive and increased dramatically. The growth rate of new orders signed by the company continues to pick up, and the speed of implementation has accelerated markedly. In 2018, the company signed new orders reaching 13.2 billion yuan. The revenue guarantee ratio for in-hand orders is close to 3 times, and the guarantee of future performance is strong. In terms of PPP business, all ongoing PPP projects have been stored and are in the execution stage, and all have been implemented; judging from the types of PPP projects, the company has entered the PPP water treatment trillion market and jointly won the bid for the first privately held high-speed rail project, and the PPP business structure continues to be optimized. The Yangtze River Delta integrated heating system continues, and rail transit projects have been intensively approved. Since September 2018, the Development and Reform Commission has intensively approved rail transit plans. Shanghai, Hangzhou and Suzhou have approved a total of nearly 500 billion yuan, accounting for 78% of the amount. The Yangtze River Delta's economic and financial strength is generally strong. It is expected that the commencement of rail transit projects after approval will accelerate. In terms of policy, the 2019 report on the work of the government elevates regional integration in the Yangtze River Delta to the national strategy. It is expected that the pace of Yangtze River Delta integration will accelerate, driving rapid growth in orders for regional municipal administration and rail transit projects. The rail transit business is deeply deployed in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai, fully benefiting from the integration of the Yangtze River Delta. There has been a steady increase in the number of new orders signed by corporate rail transit, and the share of business continues to rise. The compound annual growth rate has reached 38%. The leading advantage of private enterprise rail transit is obvious. From a regional perspective, the company's rail transit business is concentrated in the Yangtze River Delta, and is mainly concentrated in Shanghai and Hangzhou. Considering the intensive approval of rail transit projects in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai, and the continuous warmth of Yangtze River Delta integration, the company's rail transit business is expected to benefit fully. We expect the company to achieve net profit of 300 million yuan, 384 million yuan, and 443 million yuan in 2018-2020. The corresponding EPS is 0.27 yuan, 0.35 yuan, and 0.40 yuan respectively, and the PE corresponding to the stock price on March 11, 2019 is 16.2 times, 12.7 times, and 11.0 times, respectively, giving it a “prudent increase in holdings” rating. Risk warning: downside macroeconomic risks, infrastructure investment falls short of expectations, order implementation falls short of expectations, new orders fall short of expectations, business development in Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao falls short of expectations

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