The 2018 profit forecast is expected to increase 22% year over year due to large investment returns, and the 2018 profit forecast was raised 13% to 0.504 billion yuan. 1) In 2018, Huangshan received 3.38 million visitors, an increase of 0.3% over the previous year. The impact of the 17% drop in peak season ticket prices from September 28 last year to 190 yuan is expected to begin to be felt in 4Q18. Passenger traffic in Huangshan increased 20% in October, but ticket revenue fell 3%. 2) Since 4Q17, the company has cooperated with Huangshan Airport to expand the medium and remote market, generating 50 million sales expenses every year, so sales expenses are expected to rise sharply in 2018. 3) 4Q18 accelerated the reduction of Huaan Securities holdings, contributing about 0.2 billion yuan in investment income for the whole year. Key points to focus on: The opening of the Hangzhou—Huang High Speed Rail has brought about a rich increase in passenger traffic. 1) The Hangzhou—Huang High Speed Rail opened at the end of last year, and Huangshan was included in the “four-hour traffic circle” of the richest Yangtze River Delta region in China. Hangzhou, Shanghai, and Nanjing to Huangshan are as fast as 1.5, 2.5, and 3.5 hours respectively. 2) In January of this year, Huangshan received 0.113 million passengers, an increase of 84% over the previous year. Apart from the low base, the opening of the Hangzhou—Huang High Speed Rail was an important reason; during the Spring Festival holiday period, the total passenger flow at Huangshan North Railway Station was 0.151 million, an increase of 78% over the previous year. Embrace the high-speed rail dividends, and the project transformation is being actively carried out. Mountain Hotel is the main profit contributor to the company's hotel business. In order to embrace the dividends of the opening of the high-speed rail, active project renovation is underway. Construction of the Beihai Hotel environmental remediation and renovation project, which was postponed earlier, has begun, and 0.3 billion investment has been carried out in installments; in addition, construction of Shilin Jingshe in Beihai (investment of 28 million yuan) and Baiyun Tower in Xihai (investment of 68 million yuan) also began in the off-season at the end of last year. Actively promote the “walk down the mountain” strategy to achieve outreach expansion. 1) Construction of “One Cave” has begun. The company plans to invest 0.383 billion yuan in the first phase of the Huashan Mysterious Caves upgrade project to take advantage of its resource advantages (4A scenic spot) and geographical advantage (8 km from Huangshan Central City). Construction is expected to be completed by the end of 2020, which is expected to contribute 1.25 million annual passenger traffic to the company in the long term. 2) “Issui” is still being planned. The company acquired 56% of Taiping Lake Biao's shares. In 2017, the Taiping Lake Scenic Area received 1.07 million visitors, with ticket revenue of 20.204 million yuan. The Taiping Lake Scenic Area has an excellent location and huge future growth prospects. The valuation and recommendations maintain the 2019 profit forecast and introduce the 2020 profit forecast of 0.521 billion yuan. The company's current A share price corresponds to 17/16 times P/E in 2019/20. Maintaining the recommended rating, due to the high-speed rail dividend and the recent recovery in market sentiment, the target price for A shares was raised by 20% to 13.50 yuan, corresponding to 20/19 times P/E in 2019/20, with room for increase of 23%; the target price for B shares was raised by 13% to $1.58, corresponding to 17/16 times P/E in 2019/20, with room for increase of 25%. Dangerous bad weather affects passenger flow in scenic spots; epitaxial expansion projects are progressing faster than expected.
黄山旅游(600054/900942):杭黄高铁开通有望带来丰厚客流增量
Huangshan Tourism (600054/900942): The opening of the Hangzhou—Huang High Speed Rail is expected to bring a rich increase in passenger traffic
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