Events:
The company won the bid to upgrade technology 50,000 tons of lithium new materials industrial base project first phase-the annual output of 20,000 tons of lithium cathode materials intelligent plant project design, procurement, construction project general contract (EPC integration), with a total amount of 965 million, and stipulated that the project has the conditions for commissioning on December 31, 2019.
Comments:
The company won 965 million orders from Dangsheng Technology, and is expected to recognize revenue that year, and the growth logic continues to be verified. The winning of Dangsheng Technology 965 million order has two meanings: first, to continuously obtain the order itself is a further verification of the company's growth logic; second, to be able to obtain such a large order from Dangsheng Technology also means that the company's technology has been recognized by domestic mainstream cathode material manufacturers, and it is expected that the company's orders will continue to increase in the future. At the same time, considering that the project has commissioning conditions on December 31, 2019, it also means that theoretically most of this order can be recognized in 2019, and the performance in 2019 is expected to exceed expectations!
The trend of high nickel is obvious, and the professional EPC contractor has a bright future. High nickel ternary is the best way to improve the energy density of batteries at the current stage, and the permeability of 811 is expected to reach 10% in 2020, which will lead to an upsurge of investment in domestic high nickel production lines. According to statistics, the planned production capacity of 811 in China has reached more than 400000 tons, and the estimated space can reach 28 billion yuan according to the investment of 700 million yuan / 10,000 tons. At the same time, 811 technical barriers are extremely high, and the production process has stringent requirements on temperature, humidity, magnetic foreign bodies, corrosion resistance and automation, and the scale of superimposed new production capacity is more than 10,000 tons, so it is particularly difficult for enterprises to build their own production lines. third-party professional solution providers will have a bright future.
The company has obvious advantages, full of orders, and is expected to rise rapidly in the future under the trend of high nickel. Nanda Zijin is committed to the development of powder automation equipment and undertakes the first fully automatic production line of lithium cobalt / lithium manganate / lithium iron phosphate and other cathode materials in China. The company's customers are Dangsheng, Bamo, Shanshan, Menggu, etc., if the successful acquisition of Hantaike, it will bring technology and customers (Umico, Samsung, LG) synergy. The company announced in 2018 that the lithium electricity order was 2.2 billion, and the 560 million Red Horse Phase II project was signed in the second half of the year, and then superimposed this order, the company was full of orders. Considering that the confirmation period is generally 12-14 months, it will bring greater performance flexibility in the future.
The petrochemical industry is steady and improving, and the traditional business will maintain steady growth. The downstream demand for chemical products has maintained growth, while environmental protection and capacity removal policies have promoted the supply and demand of most traditional chemical industries to return to a balanced level, and the prosperity of the industry has improved significantly. The company has a leading position in the fields of synthetic fiber, synthetic rubber, synthetic resin and coal chemical industry for many years. In the future, with the gradual improvement of the industry environment, the chemical business will maintain steady growth.
The company is a domestic scarce lithium electric materials smart factory comprehensive solution provider, to maintain the "highly recommended-A" rating! We expect the company to make a net profit of 164 million yuan, 300 million yuan and 439 million yuan for 18-20 years, and 0.52,0.96 and 1.40 yuan for EPS, respectively. The current share price of 22.88 yuan corresponds to 43.8,23.9 and 16.4 times of PE in 18-20 years, maintaining the "highly recommended-A" rating.
Risk hint. The promotion of high-nickel is not up to expectations, and the competition in the industry is intensified.