The matter recently, the General Office of the People's Government of Shanxi Province issued the “Notice on Accomplishing the Work of Promoting the Use of Ethanol Gasoline for Vehicles”, which requires that starting January 1, 2020, the entire province fully promote the use of ethanol gasoline for vehicles. Comment: It is expected that in 2020, the whole country will basically achieve full coverage of automotive ethanol gasoline. On September 13, 2017, 15 departments including the National Development and Reform Commission, the National Energy Administration, and the Ministry of Finance jointly issued the “Implementation Plan on Expanding Biofuel Ethanol Production and Promoting the Use of Ethanol Gasoline for Vehicles”. According to the plan, by 2020, full coverage of automotive ethanol gasoline will be basically achieved nationwide. In June last year, the Tianjin Municipal Government took the lead in issuing the “Tianjin Municipal Implementation Plan for Promoting the Use of Ethanol Gasoline for Vehicles”, which requires the entire city to promote ethanol gasoline, and officially implement it on September 30. This time, the Shanxi provincial government issued a notice on the promotion of ethanol gasoline for vehicles throughout the province and the implementation schedule. The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei air pollution transmission channel involved cities such as Taiyuan, Yangquan, Changzhi, and Jincheng in Shanxi Province, and strives to complete promotion by the end of September. The province will complete relevant renovation work by the end of 19, and achieve comprehensive promotion throughout the province starting January 1 next year. According to estimates, the province's gasoline consumption in 2020 is expected to reach 3.75 million tons. According to the E10 (automotive ethanol gasoline adjusted according to a 10% ratio) standard, the corresponding fuel ethanol demand is 375,000 tons. The fuel ethanol outbreak has entered the countdown. The market gap is huge. The apparent domestic gasoline consumption in 2017 is about 122 million tons. Assuming a 5% demand growth rate, the country's gasoline consumption demand is expected to reach 141 million tons by 2020. If full coverage of automotive ethanol gasoline is achieved at that time, the demand for the corresponding fuel ethanol exceeds 14 million tons according to E10 standards, the industry explosion will enter the countdown. Currently, the domestic fuel ethanol production is only 2.6 million tons per year, the self-sufficiency rate is less than 20%, and the market gap is huge. Ethanol gasoline has strong environmental advantages Ethanol gasoline has strong environmental advantages. It is an important strategic emerging industry in China. It has great strategic significance in replacing non-renewable energy such as petroleum, as well as controlling atmospheric haze pollution and soil and water resource pollution. (1) It can replace or partially replace gasoline as engine fuel, effectively reduce gasoline consumption, thereby partially reducing dependence on oil imports and improving national energy security; (2) Ethanol is a high-octane component of gasoline, and the blended octane value is generally above 120, which can improve the explosion resistance of ignited internal combustion engines and make the engine run more smoothly; (3) Ethanol is an aerobic fuel, mixed into gasoline, and can replace MTBE (methyl tert-butyl ether), an oxygenator of gasoline that pollutes water resources, and at the same time makes the combustion more full Make particulate matter, carbon monoxide, volatile organic compounds ( Emissions of air pollutants such as (VOC) have been reduced by an average of more than 1/3, contributing to energy saving and environmental protection. The integration of the company group's assets has been completed, and the leader has officially set sail. For the first time, the company covered the purchase and rating. The company relied on COFCO Group. It is a domestic corn deep processing platform enterprise, with an original production capacity of 750,000 tons of biofuel ethanol. In December of last year, the company's issuance of shares to purchase group assets was completed. The fuel ethanol production capacity reached 1.35 million tons, and the domestic market share was close to half, making it a veritable fuel ethanol leader. As the promotion of ethanol gasoline for vehicles continues to be implemented across the country, the company's fuel ethanol business is expected to continue to explode. Considering mergers and tables, the company is expected to achieve net profit of 4.94/6.27/831 million yuan and EPS of 0.27/0.34/0.45 yuan in 18-20, corresponding to PE30.6/24.2/18.2 times, covering the purchase rating for the first time. Risks indicate fluctuations in corn prices, fluctuations in crude oil prices, cancellation of subsidy policies, and poor promotion of automotive ethanol
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中粮生化(000930):燃料乙醇爆发进入倒计时 公司资产整合完毕龙头正式起航
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