Tongding Interconnection (002491): the performance is slightly below the guidance range and there is uncertainty in the optical fiber and cable business in 2019.

中金公司 · Mar 1, 2019 00:00 · Researches

投资建议

下调公司评级至中性，下调目标价至9.50 元。我们认为公司整体业绩存在压力。理由如下：

中国移动近期招标2019 年普通光缆规模1.05 亿芯公里，数量同比下滑5%；但不含税价格限定最高约97 元，价格降幅在10%-20%之间。中标份额方面更加集中头部厂商，我们预计投标阶段将形成一定竞争；公司光纤光缆板块毛利2017占比公司整体45%，预计对公司整体产生一定影响。2020 年光纤光缆的需求可能会更加景气，带动公司业绩提升。

我们认为2019 年公司互联网安全、流量经营、电缆等业务均有增长空间。近期公司收购UTStarcom，设备设计生产能力进一步提升。但目前设备业务毛利占比较低，仍处于发展期。而且部分子公司通信设备板块产品竞争日益激烈。

公司业绩快报指出2018 归母净利润同比下滑3.57%，略低于之前业绩预告指引区间。

我们与市场的最大不同？我们认为市场对公司2019 年业务板块增长存在模糊认识；我们看好公司的横向业务探索，但提示投资者警惕光纤板块业绩压力。

潜在催化剂：中国移动开标光纤光缆招标情况；联通和电信招标。

盈利预测与估值

公司不断拓展其业务范围，在通信设备、网络安全、流量经营等领域的布局值得长期关注；但短期公司光纤光缆板块业务可能存在压力。我们下调公司2018 年盈利预测51%，预计公司2018E/2019E/2020E 归母净利润为5.74/4.82/6.34 亿元，对应25.9x2019 P/E。我们下调公司评级至中性，下调公司目标价52%至9.50元，对应25.0x 2019 P/E，当前股价下行空间为4%。

我们认为光纤需求有在2020 年出现提升的可能，同时公司设备业务可能在2020 年起量，业绩有望加速增长。

风险

中国移动招标结果没有落地，最终公司份额和中标价存在不确定性。高于或低于我们预期的结果均可能出现。

公司商誉规模约9.50 亿元，需要长期关注。

Investment suggestion

Downgrade the company to neutral and lower the target price to 9.50 yuan. We think there is pressure on the overall performance of the company. The reasons are as follows:

China Mobile Limited recently invited tenders for ordinary optical cables with a scale of 105 million core kilometers in 2019, down 5% from the same period last year, but the maximum price excluding tax is about 97 yuan, and the price drop is between 10% and 20%. The bid-winning share is more concentrated on the leading manufacturers, and we expect that a certain degree of competition will be formed in the bidding stage; the gross profit of the company's optical fiber and cable plate accounts for 2017 of the company's overall 45%, which is expected to have a certain impact on the company as a whole. The demand for optical fiber and cable is likely to be more prosperous in 2020, leading to an improvement in the company's performance.

We believe that the company's Internet security, traffic operation, cable and other businesses have room for growth in 2019. With the recent acquisition of UTStarcom, the production capacity of equipment design has been further improved. However, at present, the gross profit of equipment business is relatively low and is still in the stage of development. And the competition of communication equipment products of some subsidiaries is becoming increasingly fierce.

Company performance KuaiBao pointed out that 2018 homed net profit fell 3.57% year-on-year, slightly lower than the previous performance forecast guidance range.

What is the biggest difference between us and the market? We believe that the market has a vague understanding of the growth of the company's business sector in 2019; we are optimistic about the company's horizontal business exploration, but remind investors to be on guard against the performance pressure of the optical fiber sector.

Potential catalyst: China Mobile Limited bid opening optical fiber and cable bidding; Unicom and telecom bidding.

Profit forecast and valuation

The company continues to expand its business scope, and the layout in the areas of communication equipment, network security, traffic management and so on deserves long-term attention; but in the short term, there may be pressure on the company's optical fiber and cable plate business. We lowered the company's 2018 profit forecast by 51%, and expected the company's 2018E/2019E/2020E net profit to be RMB 574 million, corresponding to 25.9x2019 Pink E. We downgraded the company to neutral and lowered the company's target price by 52% to 9.50 yuan, corresponding to 25.0x 2019 PCME, with 4% downward space for the current share price.

We believe that the demand for optical fiber is likely to increase in 2020, while the company's equipment business is likely to start in 2020, and performance is expected to accelerate growth.

Risk

The result of China Mobile Limited's bidding did not fall to the ground, and the final company share and the winning price were uncertain. Results that are higher or lower than our expectations may occur.

The goodwill of the company is about 950 million yuan, which needs long-term attention.

The translation is provided by third-party software.

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通鼎互联(002491)：业绩略低于指引区间 2019年光纤光缆业务存在不确定性

Tongding Interconnection (002491): the performance is slightly below the guidance range and there is uncertainty in the optical fiber and cable business in 2019.

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