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美尚生态(300495)2018年业绩快报点评:业绩增长35%符合预期 积极布局多元业务

國泰君安 ·  Feb 28, 2019 00:00  · Researches

Guide to this report: The company is deeply involved in the municipal garden business and is accelerating the expansion of various businesses such as ecological restoration, mining and soil restoration, and wood fun. The superposition of marginal improvements to the credit environment will guarantee financial strength and benefit future development. Key investment points: Maintain an increase in holdings. The company released its 2018 performance report. Net profit of about 380 million yuan (+35%) is in line with expectations. We maintain our forecast that the company's 2018/19/20 EPS will be 0.64/0.86/1.13 yuan, a growth rate of 35/34/ 32%; maintaining the target price of 16 yuan, corresponding to 18.6/14.2 times PE in 2019/20, increasing holdings. Credit improvement+ policies support private enterprises to benefit corporate repayments and improve cash flow. 1) The net profit of the Q1-Q4 single quarter was 0.12/1.34/0.63/174 million yuan, with a growth rate of 259/13/53/ 32%; PPP regulation/credit austerity had a certain impact on the company's business development but was generally controllable; 2) There was a marked improvement in social finance and other data in January +2 on February 22, the central government emphasized “enhancing the real economic capacity of financial services”. We believe that the overall financing environment of private enterprises may continue to improve the implementation of ongoing projects, improve efficiency, and accelerate new projects; 3) The National Assembly must not be delayed until now Corporate accounts, we think, will benefit the company's account collection work, or help improve repayment efficiency and cash flow. Actively promoting diversified business layouts will enhance the competitive advantage of the entire industry chain. 1) The company is actively developing the “Ecological Restoration+Ecological Cultural Tourism” business model, firmly expanding diversified businesses such as Mugu/mining and soil restoration, with strong future growth; 2) Mine restoration is progressing steadily: ① Signing the “First Batch of Projects for Mine Ecological Management and Restoration Projects in Ju County” ② Approved by the Alpine and Arid Zone Mine Geological Environment Remediation Engineering Technology Innovation Center of the Ministry of Natural Resources; 3) Dingzeng has been approved by the Securities Regulatory Commission (valid until July 21, 2019), and plans to raise no more than 1.55 billion yuan for the operation of overlapping projects Canadian corporate bonds + Short Finance, etc., the availability of capital will guarantee the steady progress of projects under construction; 4) In January 2018, 150 million yuan of employee shareholding was completed (the previous reinstatement was 14.53 yuan), which is conducive to stimulating employee motivation. Catalysts: Core risks such as a steady recovery in infrastructure growth, continued easing of capital, and marginal improvements in the PPP model: order execution and progress falling short of expectations, capital tightening, sluggish infrastructure growth, etc.

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