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香港中旅(00308.HK):预计2018年经营性利润保持增长 预期已经见底

China Travel Service Hong Kong (00308.HK): It is expected that operating profit will continue to grow in 2018, and the forecast has bottomed out

中金公司 ·  Mar 1, 2019 00:00  · Researches

Operating profit is forecast to continue to grow in 2018, and the net profit forecast for 2018/19 was drastically reduced by 46%/47% to HK$70 million/HK$790 million: 1) The market originally anticipated that the company would sell a property in Mongkok in 2018, bringing a large one-time profit. The company has not sold the business for the time being, resulting in lower profit than previously anticipated. 2) The company's operating profit in 2017 was HK$550 million (excluding HK$550 million from the sale of clubs), and the company's operating profit is expected to continue to grow in 2018. Key points of concern 2H18's stock price dropped sharply. The main reasons include: 1) Against the backdrop of reduced ticket prices for state-owned scenic spots, ticket prices for key scenic spots such as Wuzhen, Huangshan, and Mount Emei all dropped by 8-20%. The company's tickets for the Songshan Shaolin Temple Scenic Area have been reduced from 100 yuan to 80 yuan since September 20, '18. It is expected that the future will reduce annual revenue by about 50 million yuan. 2) Shapotou Scenic Area was affected by environmental protection policies, and some attraction projects were cancelled. 3) The market's expectations for the company to sell Mongkok properties in 2018 were not realized. Expectations bottomed out and began to rebound: 1) The company's core theme park business continued to maintain a steady growth trend and was not affected by the economy. 2) The leisure and resort areas that the company focuses on investing in, although the assets are heavy and the profit situation is average, the tourist real estate developed with Evergrande in Zhuhai has brought in revenue since 2018. Currently, it is only in the first phase of development, accounting for only 1/4 of the land area, and will continue to release performance in the future. Furthermore, the Group entrusts the company to operate the Group's real estate business, which will not only incur additional management fees, but will also enhance the company's ability to develop real estate. 3) Based on the above judgment, we expect the company to adjust sufficiently, and current market expectations are low. The company's operating performance is expected to overcome the negative impact of the reduction in tickets to natural scenic spots and continue to grow steadily. Expectations to sell assets: Although the company's expectations for the sale of assets in 2018 fell short, with the company currently holding the rich value of assets, selling part of the assets is more conducive to achieving the company's value. Therefore, from the perspective of expectations, the sale of assets is expected to improve in the future. Mongkok properties that were not completed in 2018 were sold or completed in 2019. The valuation and recommendations did not take into account the large one-time gain that may be brought about by the sale of assets. The 2018/2019 net profit forecast was lowered by 46%/47% to HK$70 million/HK$790 million, and the net profit forecast for 2020 was introduced to HK$800 million. Considering that the company's stock price has been fully adjusted and the recommended rating is maintained, the target price is HK$3.09 (30% reduction), corresponding to 24/21/19 times 2018/19/20 EP/e. The current stock price corresponds to 18/16/14 times 2018/19/20e P/E, and the target price is 33% from the current stock price increase. Risk asset sales progress risk; uncertainty about improving asset profitability in leisure resort areas.

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