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美盈森(002303)公司点评:业绩符合预期盈利有提升 积极布局海外

國金證券 ·  Feb 28, 2019 00:00  · Researches

The incident company announced a quick performance report. In 2018, it achieved revenue of 3.248 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.70%, net profit to mother of 407 million yuan, an increase of 16.90%, and fully diluted EPS of 0.26 yuan, which is basically in line with expectations. Changes in the scope of reviews and mergers were not a drag, and new customer development helped increase revenue. In the first half of '18, due to Huitianyun.com, a subsidiary originally acquired by the company, its original shareholders repurchased and implemented it, and it was no longer included in the scope of the company's merger. However, judging from the rapid performance report, the change in the scope of the company's consolidated statement did not significantly slow down revenue growth. The core reason for this is the continuous volume of orders from the company's strategic customers and the continuous development of new customers. The company entered the die-cutting business for high value-added products in '17. The business achieved profit growth of up to 81.77% in the first half of '18, and it is expected that the business will continue to grow rapidly throughout the year. Combined with domestic packaging base paper price adjustments over 18 years, the company's profitability improved. The net profit margin for the whole year was 12.52%, an increase of 0.45 pct over 2017. Build new production bases, recreate new growth, and expand overseas into emerging markets. In order to effectively promote the development of military products business and intelligent packaging business, in April '18, the company announced that it will invest 430 million yuan in Xi'an to build an intelligent packaging R&D and production base, which will help seize the needs of the middle and high-end packaging and military packaging market in northwest China and create a new performance growth point. In February of this year, the company announced its intention to use no more than 50 million US dollars of self-raised capital to invest in the establishment of a subsidiary in India. The establishment of the Indian company is an important step in the company's strategic layout to Southeast Asia, enhancing the ability of customers in the Indian region to respond quickly, helping to share market opportunities brought about by the economic development of countries along the Belt and Road, including India, enhance the company's competitiveness in the regional market, consolidate and enhance its position in the industry, and form a new profit growth point. The profit distribution amount continues to rise, demonstrating the company's determination to give back to shareholders. The company announced that the controlling shareholder proposed the 2018 dividend plan to distribute a cash dividend of 2.00 yuan (tax included) for every 10 shares to all shareholders. The company's profit distribution ratio has continued to increase in recent years. The proportion of distributed profit in 2015 was only 15.89% of net profit, but this time the proposed distribution ratio has increased dramatically to 75.25%. While demonstrating the company's determination to give back to shareholders, it also shows the steady increase in the company's overall business scale and profitability. Investment proposals and profit forecasting The company's “packaging integration” has a clear competitive advantage. It is actively expanding its business in multiple fields. Downstream customers are highly decentralized. The layout of electronic functional materials and intelligent packaging logistics networks will also open up room for the company's long-term profit and market value growth. We predict that the company's EPS after full dilution in 2018-2020 will be 0.26/0.29/0.33 yuan (three-year CAGR 11.3%), corresponding to PE of 17/16/14 times, respectively. Maintaining a “buy” rating risk indicates increased risk of market competition; the risk of rising raw material prices; and the risk of exchange rate fluctuations.

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