It is estimated that the net profit of homing in 2018 will increase by 82% compared with the same period last year.
KuaiBao, the performance of Xinlun Technology in 2018, is expected to achieve revenue of 3.24 billion yuan, an increase of 57% over the same period last year, and an estimated net profit of 314 million yuan, an increase of 82%, corresponding to a profit of 0.27 yuan per share, which is lower than expected. the main reason is that the profit of the first phase of Changzhou is 30 million yuan lower than expected, the provision for bad debts of accounts receivable is 35 million yuan, and the second and third phases of Changzhou projects are 25 million yuan lower than expected. The financial and administrative expenses increased by more than 25 million yuan than expected.
4Q18's revenue was 715 million yuan, down 30% from the previous month, and its net profit was 8.34 million yuan, down 94% from the previous month.
Pay attention to the main points
Continue to be optimistic about the rapid growth of Changzhou Phase I electronic materials. Apple Inc's lower-than-expected 4Q18 sales of mobile phones and slow mass production of new products that the company included in the BOM list of some domestic mobile phone brands led to a 30 million yuan drop in fourth-quarter results compared to budget. However, as the sales of Apple Inc mobile phones rebounded after the price reduction, and the material number of the company's introduction of Apple Inc products is expected to continue to increase, at the same time, the company's imported products in domestic mobile phones and the proportion of the company's high-end production line continue to increase, will help the company's performance to continue to grow rapidly.
Production capacity continues to expand to create a global leading enterprise of aluminum and plastic film. At present, the company's production capacity of aluminum-plastic film in Japan and Changzhou Phase II is 200x300 square meters / month respectively, the second 3 million square meters / month production line in Changzhou Phase II is expected to be 2Q19 trial production, and the long-term planned production capacity of aluminum-plastic film is 1500 million square meters / month. At present, Changzhou Phase II consumer electronics aluminum-plastic film has passed ATL and other major customer certification, and power aluminum-plastic film is currently being certified by customers. The company estimates that the total shipments of aluminum and plastic film this year will not be less than 3000 million square meters.
The third phase of optoelectronic display materials has become a new growth point. The third phase of the project introduces the Japanese Dongshan technical team and the most advanced nano-precision coating line in Hirano, Japan, and will focus on the layout of flexible OLED-related materials. There are five production lines in the third phase of the project. the first two production lines have been put into production in November 2018, and the remaining three production lines are expected to be put into production by the end of 2019. IHS expects the growth rate of OLED screen shipments from 2017 to 22 by 14.4%. Flexible OLED screen shipments will account for 55% in 2022. The development of flexible OLED panels will lead to rapid growth of upstream material demand, and the third phase of the project is expected to become a new profit growth point for the company.
Valuation and suggestion
Due to the lower-than-expected performance, the annual profit forecast for 2018-19-20 was lowered by 30%, 17%, 10%, to 0.27, 0.47, 0.64 yuan per share. At present, the company's share price corresponds to the 20-year price-to-earnings ratio of 25.5max 18.6x in 2019, and the target price is lowered by 7.6% to 14.5 yuan, which is 21% higher than the current share price. The target price corresponds to 2019 max, which is recommended by the 2030 Pmax E.
Risk
The sales of electronic materials are lower than expected, and the progress of Changzhou Phase II and Phase III product certification is lower than expected.