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凌钢股份(600231):方大入股叠加朝美缓和雄安建设 公司迎来上升期

天風證券 ·  Feb 26, 2019 00:00  · Researches

According to the company's announcement, Guangfa Fund plans to transfer 172,745,581 shares of the company's shares through an agreed transfer, accounting for 6.23% of the company's total share capital. The transferee is Jiujiang Pinggang Steel Co., Ltd. According to a report by the Korean Central News Agency, North Korea's supreme leader **** left Pyongyang on a special train on the afternoon of February 23 to attend the second North Korea-US leaders' meeting and talks to be held in Hanoi, Vietnam from February 27 to 28. Recently, with the approval of the Party Central Committee and the State Council, the State Council officially approved the “Hebei Xiong'an New Area Master Plan (2018-2035)”. The central government approved the Hebei Xiong'an New Area Master Plan, marking that Xiong'an New Area has entered a new stage of large-scale development and construction. The formal investment of major long materials production bases in Northeast China is expected to continue to improve the company's management efficiency. According to the company's announcement, Linggang currently has a crude steel production capacity of 5.7 million tons; steel production capacity is 7.41 million tons, including 1.4 million tons of strip steel, 600,000 tons of wire, 4.9 million tons of bars, and 510,000 tons of steel pipes, of which 74% of the company's total production capacity is close to three-quarters of the company's total production capacity. Linggang Co., Ltd. is a major long material manufacturer in Northeast China. The company's products have a differentiated competitive advantage. Fang Dashe has officially taken a stake in Ling Steel's shares. Internally, it is expected that the company's management efficiency will continue to be enhanced. It is expected that “substantive negotiations” between North Korea and the US will begin after half a year. On April 27, 2018, North Korea and South Korea signed the “Panmunjom Declaration for Achieving Peace, Prosperity, and Unification of the Peninsula”. The two sides reached consensus on issues such as improving relations between North and South Korea, easing military tension, promoting a change in the cessation mechanism, and establishing common goals for denuclearization of the peninsula. On June 12 of the same year, the leaders of North Korea and the US held their first meeting in Singapore. Although the Singapore meeting achieved a “breakthrough,” no clear concrete measures were reached. After the meeting, negotiations on denuclearization between North Korea and the US stalled for almost half a year. This is the second meeting since June of last year. North Korea and the US will discuss how to further promote the denuclearization process of the peninsula and improve relations between North Korea and the US. At the same time, it is also the concretization of the details of the agreement reached at the first summit meeting between North Korea and the US on June 12 last year. The current talks are expected to begin “substantial negotiations” between North Korea and the US, and the “Hanoi Declaration” which the two sides are expected to issue after the talks may also bring substantial progress to North Korea-US relations in the later stages. The US may loosen ties with North Korea and add Xiong'an to the large-scale development and construction stage. Northeast building materials companies are expected to directly benefit from the relaxation of sanctions against North Korea or become one of the important points of discussion in this meeting. If the US loosens ties with North Korea, the North Korean economy will usher in a new era of rapid development. Currently, North Korea's industrial base lags far behind the world average, and infrastructure construction is extremely scarce. Referring to China's development experience in reform and opening-up, if North Korea achieves a real transformation and economic development, steel consumption will increase rapidly. In the beginning stages of North Korea's economic development, early steel still needs to be imported. As a neighboring country of North Korea, China is likely to become North Korea's main importer of steel. However, the construction of Xiong'an New Area is an important guiding policy for the Chinese government to adjust and optimize the urban layout and spatial structure of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei. Demand for steel was huge in the later stages. The company is expected to benefit externally from the development of North Korea and the construction of Xiong'an New Area, and is optimistic about the company's later profitability. The company's stable operation maintains purchase ratings. We expect the company's EPS in 2018-2020 to be 0.67 yuan, 0.77 yuan, and 0.79 yuan. Based on the closing price on February 25, the corresponding PE is 4.87, 4.23, and 4.16. The company operates stably and maintains a buying rating. Risk warning: changes in the relationship between China and North Korea, contraction in the company's net profit due to falling steel prices, changes in production and maintenance of the company's equipment, changes in operating costs due to the company's own management, etc.

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