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爱仕达(002403):4Q18线上销售较好

中金公司 ·  Feb 21, 2019 00:00  · Researches

The company's recent information search data shows that Aishida's Tmall flagship store had good sales in November and December. Comment The Aishida flagship store sold well in November and December: 1) The company's Double Eleven and Double 12 promotions had obvious results. According to data from Aishida's Tmall flagship store in November and December 2018, the ratio between Aishida's Tmall flagship store sales and the sales volume of Supor's Tmall flagship store reached 52% and 35%, while in the rest of the months this ratio was usually around 20%, indicating that Axeda's online sales increased significantly in November and December. 2) The average sales price of Aishida cookware is less than 200 yuan. The lipstick effect has led to a greater increase in the growth rate of categories necessary for daily life and low unit prices. 3) In winter, consumers' preference for hot pot increased markedly. In November and December, the company's store sales in this category reached 20% and 22% respectively, and yuanyang hot pot became the single product sales champion in November and December. However, the average sales price of hot pot products is only 82 yuan. The company's frying pan product strength lags behind Supor: 1) Judging from the sales structure of Aishida flagship store and Supor flagship store in November, wok that meets Chinese cooking habits is the most important product, accounting for 39% and 44% of sales respectively. 2) The gap between Aishida and Supor is mainly reflected in frying pan products. Frying pans in Aishida's flagship store accounted for only 3.3% of sales, while Supor reached 13.8%, making it the second largest category after wok. 3) The Supor frying pan uses red dot technology provided by the parent company SEB, so its product strength is more advanced and recognized by consumers. The average transaction price of Supor frying pans in November was 152 yuan, while the average price of Aishida frying pans was only 84 yuan. Export business risk reduction: 1) The 4Q18 RMB exchange rate is relatively stable. We expect the company's export gross margin and business profit to gradually stabilize. 2) The price of aluminum 4Q18, the main raw material, was reduced by 5% to 10% over the same period last year, which is conducive to improving the company's profit margin. The valuation suggests maintaining the company's profit forecast. The EPS for 2018/19 was 0.48 yuan/0.55 yuan, and the 2020 EPS forecast was introduced at 0.62 yuan. Maintain a neutral rating and target price of 10.00 yuan, corresponding to 2018/19e 21x/18x P/E. The company's current stock price corresponds to 2018/19e 18x/16x P/E, and the target price is 14% from the current stock price increase. Risk The risk of fluctuations in the RMB exchange rate.

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