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强力新材(300429):业务规模稳步增长 布局新领域潜力巨大

中信建投證券 ·  Jan 31, 2019 00:00  · Researches

The event company released its 2018 performance forecast on the evening of January 29, 2019. It expects net profit for the full year of 2018 to be 146-158 million yuan, an increase of 15%-25% over the previous year. The scale of the short review business grew steadily, and non-recurring profit and loss led to short-term incremental company performance, mainly due to: ① The company expects the impact of non-recurring profit and loss on net profit in 2018 to be 10-15 million yuan, compared to 5.97 million yuan in the same period last year; ② The company's sales revenue increased compared to the same period last year, driving profit growth. The performance forecast range corresponds to the Q4 quarter net profit of 0.34 to 046 million yuan, an increase of 0% to 35% over the previous quarter. The company's non-recurring profit and loss for the first three quarters was 4.02 million yuan, corresponding to the Q4 quarter's non-recurring profit and loss of 598-10.98 million yuan. The month-on-month change in Q4 net profit was greatly affected by non-recurring profit and loss. Extensive mergers and acquisitions continued, building an integrated upstream and downstream industry chain. At the end of 2018, the company completed the acquisition of Xinyu in Changsha. The latter is currently the largest manufacturer of photosensitive initiator series products in China. Its wholly-owned subsidiary, Nantong Xinyu, mainly produces coatings and coating additives. Both businesses are closely linked to the company's traditional photoinitiator business and future development direction of radiation-curing coatings business, which is expected to form significant synergies. Prior to this merger and acquisition, the company acquired Gelin Photosensitive in August and entered the downstream light-curing materials field, followed by a fixed acquisition of upstream company Jiaying Optoelectronics in 2016. Continued extension mergers and acquisitions are expected to enable the company to rapidly expand its scale and build an integrated upstream and downstream industrial chain. The main business is growing steadily, and LCD photoinitiators are expected to contribute a considerable incremental amount. The company's production of PCB photoinitiators, PCB resins, LCD photoinitiators, and semiconductor photoinitiators in 2017 was 894, 1854, 81.7, and 18.1 tons, respectively. In recent years, the company's display-specific chemicals revenue and gross profit share have continued to increase. As of 2018, the gross profit share of the interim report had reached nearly 40%, making it essentially the largest business. According to our statistics, by 2020, the domestic LCD production capacity will reach 141 million square meters, an increase of 114% over 2017, and the corresponding increase in the LCD photoresist market by about 5 billion yuan. The company's LCD photoresist chemicals are expected to continue to contribute to considerable growth in the future. Join hands with Yulei Optoelectronics and LG Chem to create a leading domestic OLED terminal material leader. According to IHS estimates, the penetration rate of OLED for small to medium screens will reach 45.7% in 2018; OLED TV shipments for large screens will grow by about 65%. According to our estimates, the global OLED panel shipment area will increase from 4.97 million square meters in 2017 to 1977 million square meters in 2021, with an average compound annual growth rate of 41%. The domestic OLED panel shipment area will increase from 80,000 square meters in 2017 to 4.09 million square meters in 2021, with an average annual growth rate of 169%. The domestic market space for OLED terminal materials will reach 3.09 billion yuan by 2021. In August 2016, the company established a joint venture with Taiwan's Yulai Optoelectronics, etc., to focus on OLED terminal materials, and put into operation in September 2017; in July 2018, Qiangli Yulai signed a cooperation agreement with LG to jointly establish an OLED “material evaluation laboratory”. The company currently has 6 sublimation machines and 1 evaporator, and plans to add 10 more sublimation machines this year. The development of UV-LED inks is at the right time. UV-LED inks are rapidly replacing traditional solvent-based inks due to their wide coating adaptability, higher quality, no VOCs emissions, and low cost in construction projects. According to market research firm TechNavio, the global UV-LED technology compound annual growth rate will reach 39% in 2015-2020, with the Asia Pacific region growing at 39.31%, with the fastest growth rate. The total annual output of ink in China is about 710,000 tons. Since about 60% of the weight of traditional solvent ink evaporates after drying, its dry weight is about 300,000 tons. If 30%-50% of this is replaced by UV-LED ink, the demand for UV-LED ink is about 90,000 tons, with a market size of 108-18 billion yuan at 120,000 yuan/ton price. The company reported the addition of photovoltaics - an environmentally friendly photoinitiator with an annual output of 12,000 tons, an annual output of 50,000 tons of UV-LED high-performance resin, and other related raw materials and pilot workshop projects. At the same time, it was announced in early August that the acquisition of 10% shares in Gelin Optoelectronics will be extended downstream, extending the industry chain downstream. There are strong expectations for future injection of Green Photoelectric. According to a report by the Changzhou High-tech Zone News, the company will contribute about 400 million yuan in net profit after taxes after the construction of the project under construction and the Gelin photoelectric sensor project under construction are put into operation, which is equivalent to reconstructing more than 2 powerful new materials. The company's net profit for 2018, 2019, and 2020 is estimated to be 150 million yuan, 230 million yuan, and 3.1 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to EPS of 0.60, 0.89, and 1.20 yuan, PE 47X, 32X, and 23X, maintaining the increase in holdings rating.

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