share_log

新纶科技(002341)重大事项点评:PI项目签署合作协议 OLED兴起未来可期

中信證券 ·  Feb 14, 2019 00:00  · Researches

The company and Suzhou Jucui signed a PI project cooperation agreement to lay out OLED flexible display materials, and there is broad room for future growth. In the long run, the company's three phase projects in Changzhou are all in a good stage of development. The electronic functional materials business has accelerated penetration, the aluminum-plastic film business has taken advantage of the soft pack battery industry, and the optical film materials business has accelerated penetration. We are optimistic about the company's growth for a long time, maintaining a target price of 15 yuan and a “buy” rating. A PI project cooperation agreement was signed to lay out OLED flexible materials. The company and Suzhou Jucui signed a PI project cooperation agreement to jointly build PI resin and film production lines. The total investment for the resin project is estimated to be no more than 200 million yuan. The investment in film forming and coating projects is determined by the company's planning. PI film is the key to OLED flexibility. Compared with ordinary polymer films, PI substrate materials have excellent high temperature resistance, mechanical properties, and chemical stability. Yellow PI is currently the base material for mainstream OLED products, and transparent PI is the best solution to replace glass substrates in future foldable and rollable OLED products. With the rise of OLED panels, the PI market is expected to explode in the future. Electronic functional materials: stock market, accelerated penetration. Although demand for electronic products is close to saturation in the short term and market capacity has shrunk slightly, the first phase of the company's Changzhou project has maintained a rapid penetration trend in various supply chains. Among them, 1) Apple's supply chain: we estimate that the company currently has a share of about 10%, judging that this share still has a lot of room for growth; 2) OPPO and Vivo supply chain: With the acquisition of Qianhong Electronics, the company successfully enters the OV supply chain, and is expected to achieve a higher growth rate in 2019. Based on the above situation, we believe that the company's business is expected to maintain a relatively stable growth trend through the continuous increase in penetration rate. Functional optical film: 10 billion market, domestic replacement. Currently, the global panel market is in the process of migrating to mainland China, and the corresponding upstream raw materials market is rapidly expanding. According to our estimates, the functional optical film materials field of the company's Changzhou Phase III layout has a market space of 350 million square meters and 7 billion yuan, and is still maintaining a rapid upward trend. We have determined that the company, as the first material supplier in China to lay out a functional optical film coating process, will use the introduction of Nitto Technology to achieve a rapid increase in the performance of the Changzhou Phase III project. We forecast that by 2021-2022, the company is expected to gain 10%-15% market share. Risk factors: The proposed project fell short of expectations; the soft package penetration rate fell short of expectations; the smartphone market continued to shrink. Investment advice: The company lays out OLED flexible materials, and various businesses are developing well. We are optimistic that the company's views have not changed for a long time. Maintain the 2018-20 EPS forecast of 0.39/0.51/0.72 yuan, and maintain the target price of 15 yuan (corresponding to 30 times PE in 2019) and the “buy” rating.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


The above content is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice related to Futu. Although we strive to ensure the truthfulness, accuracy, and originality of all such content, we cannot guarantee it.
    Write a comment