The forecast loss is 90-1.25 billion yuan.
The company announced that it would revise the change in net profit in 2018 from "- 10% to 20%" to "loss of 950 million to 1.25 billion yuan", which was lower than expected.
Pay attention to the main points
The provision for impairment loss of goodwill and provision for bad debts led to a pre-loss in 2018. By the end of the third quarter, the company had a goodwill of 1.257 billion yuan, most of which came from the acquisition of Hefei Tongzhi and Fujian Junpeng. The company announced that due to factors such as the intensification of market competition, the life span of the asset group and the acceleration of the upgrading of technical products, the impairment of the asset group at the time of merger and acquisition in Hefei was 500-600 million yuan, and the impairment provision for the asset group at the time of merger and acquisition in Fujian Junpeng was 500-600 million yuan. Luoyang Jiasheng corresponding to the asset group impairment provision of about 13 million yuan, a total of 10-1.2 billion yuan. After this impairment, the company's book goodwill balance is 0.57-257 million yuan, and the goodwill impairment risk is greatly released. In addition, the company announced that a large amount of accounts receivable for set-top box business will be made in 2018, with an estimated amount of 100-200 million yuan.
Continue to pay attention to the growth prospects of military intelligent mechanical and electrical business and electric air-conditioning compressor business. Hefei Tongzhi mainly produces military intelligent power supply system, intelligent power distribution system and vehicle electromechanical integrated management system of intelligent vehicle motor equipment, which is expected to maintain a steady growth trend in 2019-20. Yinhe Tongzhi New Energy is mainly based on electric vehicle scroll compressor products. at present, Jianghuai Automobile and other domestic car factories have established supply contracts with the company, and the company has delivered goods one after another in the second half of 2018. The products are highly recognized by customers and are expected to become a new growth point of the company in 2019.
Valuation and suggestion
Based on the revised announcement of the performance forecast, the annual net profit forecast for 18-19-20 was lowered to-1.001 billion yuan / 214 million yuan / 257 million yuan, of which 18 years changed from profit to loss (increased asset impairment loss forecast), and in 1920, it was reduced by 9.2% and 8.5% (revenue forecast by sub-item).
The current share price of the company corresponds to 19Compact 20e 18.8x/15.7x PCME. Based on the adjustment of the performance forecast and taking into account the uncertainty of the company's performance, the target price was lowered by 19% to 3.40 yuan, corresponding to 19/20e18x/15x Ppace E, with a potential downside of 5%, maintaining a "neutral" rating for the time being.
Risk
Parent company (set-top box business), Fujian Junpeng, Luoyang Jiasheng performance improvement uncertainty.
