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北信源(300352):行业红利推进 安全与可控双领军加速成长

國盛證券 ·  Jan 28, 2019 00:00  · Researches

Beijing Xinyuan: A dual leader with both secure and controlled business. The company was founded in 1996. According to CCID data, the company ranked first in China's terminal security management market share for 12 consecutive years. The company's core products are mainly terminal security management, Xinyuan Doudou, and big data applications. Furthermore, the company has had an autonomous and controlled business for many years and is in a leading position in many terminal security products. Investment in the information security industry is accelerating, and industrial control and the Internet of Things are expanding the security market space. Information security strengthens the policy cycle: When the 2.0 policy is implemented, investment may accelerate two years after the 13th Five-Year Plan. The 13th Five-Year Plan sets out separate goals for information security development, reaching 200 billion yuan in revenue in 2020. In the post-commercialization cycle of 5G, IoT security and industrial control security requirements expand the information security market. Information security is expected to become a common requirement in the IoT era. Cybersecurity is advancing towards industrial control security, thereby preparing for IoT security. Expansion will bring more space to the industry. Gartner predicts that global IoT security spending will reach 3.1 billion US dollars in 2021, an increase of 100% compared to 2018. Focusing on the three major strategies of “information security, big data, and the Internet,” industrial control security is expected to shine brightly. 1) Terminal security management. The company provides security protection for Windows terminals, domestic terminals, mobile terminals, and virtualized terminals from the three directions of intranet security, data security, and border security; 2) Xinyuan Doudou creates a cross-terminal, comprehensive, secure and trustworthy communication aggregation platform. 3) Big data application to create a “big data” intranet security product ecosystem. The company's main customers are users in important industries such as government, energy, military, finance, and medical care. As the capacity and scale of the cybersecurity market gradually expands, companies have the opportunity to expand customers in more industries and increase their market share. In addition, the company collaborated with the National Industrial Safety Development Center to develop an “Industrial Safety Emergency Command Communication System” and launched a series of industrial control safety products to prepare for the future entry into IoT security. Autonomous, controllable and accelerated implementation, and the company's three products were selected in the “Adaptation List”. Stimulated by trade frictions, national policies continue to be strengthened. Autonomous and controllable demand initiated in 2018 has entered the implementation year, and special computers using domestic CPUs, domestic operating systems, and supporting information security products have entered the stage of widespread promotion and equipment, providing a new round of driving force for the promotion and application of a series of security and confidential products based on domestic operating systems. The company's three localized security products (Beixinyuan host audit and monitoring system, Beixinyuan identity authentication system, and Beixinyuan's Jingyun network anti-virus system) were selected for the first phase of the “Adaptation List” of localized information products. The target market value for 2019 is $11.3 billion, giving it a “buy” rating. The company's net profit for 2018-2020 is estimated to be 117/2.08/309 million, respectively, and the compound growth rate for the next two years will be about 60%. Considering the company's leading position in the safety terminal management market and the growth of future autonomous, controllable and industrial safety products, the company is given a target market value of 113 billion yuan for 2019, 0.9 for PEG, 54 times for PE, coverage for the first time, and a “buy” rating. Risk warning: Competition in the industry intensifies; government investment in security information products falls short of expectations; there is a risk of errors in key assumptions.

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