Event: 18-year net profit increased by 0.21% to 19.69%, in line with expectations
The company issued an 18-year performance forecast on January 21, with an estimated net profit of 1.08-129 million yuan, an increase of 0.21% to 19.69% over the same period last year, in line with expectations. From the point of view of national defense security, strategic requirements and the development of naval equipment, we believe that our navy will continue to invest heavily in construction in the future, and with the landing of the civil-military integration policy, the company's future military performance is expected to rise. In the field of civil ships, the company is also more competitive than domestic enterprises, and is expected to benefit from the independent policy of supporting civil ships in the future. We estimate that the EPS of the company from 2018 to 2020 will be 0.65 Universe 0.76 Plus 1.07 Yuan. Maintain a "buy" rating.
Equity incentive affected the current return net profit, and the actual performance growth was more than 19.4%.
On September 20, 2018, the company completed the award of shares for the first time. According to our calculation, the amortization expenses of equity incentives from 2018 to 2021 were 20.68 million / 34.12 million / 12.41 million / 2.58 million yuan respectively. According to the unlocking performance conditions, the net profit from 2018 to 2020 should reach at least 104 million / 101 million / 133 million yuan. According to the 2018 performance forecast, the current performance has met the requirements. According to the performance forecast, if amortization expenses are added, the actual performance can reach 129 million to 150 million yuan, with an increase of 19.4% to 38.88%. We believe that although the equity incentive affects the current return net profit, the smooth implementation of the equity incentive plan will not only help to enhance the enthusiasm and creativity of the core backbone, but also help to ensure the realization of the company's long-term strategy and business objectives.
Naval equipment continues to develop, and warship supporting business is expected to continue to rise in the future.
The construction of aircraft carrier formation system superimposed the replacement of old warships, and the demand for shipbuilding in the next few years is still strong, which will lead to the sustained and rapid development of naval equipment, especially high-value warships such as aircraft carriers and large destroyers. The improvement of the electrical and automation level of advanced ships has also increased the demand for electrical and automation equipment of warships. The company is the core supplier of electrical and automation systems for naval vessels, and is expected to benefit from the continued high investment in naval equipment construction in the future.
The supporting market for civil ships is large, and the business of civil products is actively transforming to system integration, which has great potential for growth in the future.
We estimate that the market demand for civil ship electrical and automation systems will be more than 30 billion in 2017, but at present, foreign-funded enterprises occupy the majority of China's civil ship electrical and automation market. Ritter shares are well-known domestic enterprises. Compared with many other small and medium-sized private enterprises, Reiter shares have high brand awareness, strong technological research and development and independent innovation capabilities in the industry, and a wide range of product applications. In the future, with the promotion of the localization policy of warship supporting, the company's civil products business is expected to benefit.
Warship Electrical and Automation High-quality Civil Service Enterprises, maintain "Buy" rating
The company is a high-quality civil service enterprise for warship electrical and automation, benefiting from the sustainable development of naval equipment, civil-military integration policy and civil ship supporting independent policy, the performance of both ends of the military and civilian is expected to continue to rise in the future. We estimate that the operating income of Reiter shares from 2018 to 2020 is 509pip 6.67 / 838 million yuan respectively, and the net profit of return to the mother is 1.10pm 1.28pm respectively (the previous value is 1.04pm 180m), and the corresponding EPS is 0.65,076,1.07 yuan respectively. The average Pamp E valuation of comparable companies in 2019 is 29.68, and we give Reiter shares 30-32 times Pamp E valuation in 2019, with a target price range of 22.72-24.23 yuan per share. Maintain a "buy" rating.
Risk hints: the growth of military expenditure and the promotion of civil-military integration policy are lower than expected; the recovery of civil ships and the promotion of civil ship supporting autonomy policy are lower than expected.
