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上海锦江国际酒店(02006.HK):维持“收集”

國泰君安國際 ·  Jan 9, 2019 00:00  · Researches

We keep our earnings forecast unchanged. Considering the decline in the number of hotel openings expected by Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotel (“Jin Jiang” or the “Company”) in 2019 and a number of macro indicators predicting a slowdown in the economy, we have lowered our earnings forecast for the company in our last company report (published on December 17, 2018). In the first nine months of 2018, the net increase in domestic limited service hotels in operation fell short of our expectations, with a total of 499 rooms due to the closure or sale of many poorly managed self-operated and budget hotels in the first nine months of 2018. We expect net profit for 2018-2020 to be RMB 784 million, $869 million and $1,018 million respectively, with a compound annual growth rate of 10.2%. We expect the adjusted net profit growth rate to be greater than the net profit growth rate because net income and income from non-operations will decrease in the future, while more of the company's net profit will come from core operating business. We expect basic and diluted net profit per share for 2018-2020 to be RMB 0.141, $0.156 and $0.183 respectively, with year-on-year increases of 3.1%, 10.8% and 17.2%, respectively. We lowered the target price of Jinjiang from HK$2.40 to HK$2.15, but maintained a “collection” investment rating. Since our last company report, hotel industry stocks have experienced major price adjustments, and overall market sentiment and industry valuations have deteriorated to a certain extent. Our new target price is equivalent to 9.5 times the adjusted EV/EBITDA in 2018 and 12.4 times the price-earnings ratio, and is equivalent to a 16.8% discount on our valuation of HK$2.59 per share using discounted cash flow.

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