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扬帆新材(300637):18年业绩符合预期 继续推荐

西南證券 ·  Jan 9, 2019 00:00  · Researches

Incident: The company released a performance forecast. It is expected to achieve net profit of 13—150 million yuan for the full year of 2018, an increase of 100.9%-127.0% over the previous year. The photoinitiator industry segment leader has the advantage of raw materials. The company is an enterprise mainly engaged in R&D, production and sales of photoinitiators, thiol compounds and their derivatives. Its main product, Photoinitiator 907, occupies the first place in the domestic market. The company has the ability to produce 907 raw anisulfide on a large scale, and has the production capacity of the entire industry chain from raw materials to final products. The cost advantage and raw material guarantee advantages are obvious. Currently, the company has two production bases, in Shangyu and Jiangxi, which produce photoinitiator series products and thiol compounds and derivatives, respectively, with a production capacity of 2,000 tons. Three factors led to high annual performance growth. The company implemented the relevant plans one by one according to the strategic plan and arrangement, and gradually raised the sales price of the product while maintaining relatively stable market supply and demand. Compared with the same period in '17, the price of the company's products increased by a certain margin. Second, the company has continuously improved the technology, technology and quality of its products, which have won further recognition from the market. Some reserve varieties of thiol compounds have been effectively promoted and sold in the downstream market, becoming a new profit growth point for the company. Third, the appreciation of the US dollar brought about an increase in exchange earnings and a decrease in interest expenses, and financial expenses dropped significantly compared to the same period last year. The impact of non-recurring profit and loss on net profit in 2018 is estimated to be RMB 8-10 million; the impact of non-recurring profit and loss on net profit in 2017 is RMB 4.5939 million. Invest 500 million yuan to build the first phase of the Inner Mongolia project to consolidate its position in the industry. The company is building a 29,000-ton photoinitiator and pharmaceutical intermediate project in Alashan. The project will be completed and put into operation in 2019, gradually releasing production capacity. The project will help the company expand its product categories in the field of photoinitiators and pharmaceutical intermediates in the future, improve the industrial chain, and enhance its core competitiveness. Profit forecasting and ratings. Considering the current product production and sales situation, the company's EPS for 2018-2020 is expected to be 1.13 yuan, 1.34 yuan, and 2.21 yuan respectively. The net profit returned to mother will maintain a compound growth rate of 61% over the next three years, maintaining a “buy” rating. Risk warning: environmental risk, production safety risk, market risk, risk of progress and production progress of ongoing or proposed construction projects falling short of expectations.

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