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HONGHUA GROUP(00196.HK):符合预期

申萬宏源研究 ·  Jan 4, 2019 00:00  · Researches

Honghua Group announced a positive profit. It is expected to turn a loss into a profit in '18, in line with our previous expectations. However, concerns about past supply and demand in the oil market have intensified, casting a shadow over future oil market prospects and demand for oil service equipment. As a result, we lowered the company's earnings per share forecast for 19 years from RMB 0.07 to RMB 0.04, downgraded the earnings per share paving forecast for 2020 from RMB 0.13 to RMB 0.07, and we lowered the company's target price from HK$0.96 to HK$0.47, corresponding to a price-earnings ratio of 9.0 times in '19. Considering the favorable divestment of the offshore sector and the abundant order flow, we remain optimistic about the company's future development. We maintain our Overweight Rating. The oil market is concerned. Oil prices have fallen by more than 35% since their peak in October '18. Concerns about oversupply have intensified in '19. We are cautious about the increase in oil-related capital expenditure of oil companies in '19. We lowered the company's earnings per share forecast for 19 years from RMB0.07 to RMB0.04, downgraded our Paving Earnings Per Share Forecast for 2020 from RMB0.13 to RMB0.07, and lowered the company's target price from HK$0.96 to HK$0.47. The offshore sector's divestment is favorable. Honghua Group announced that it has signed an agreement with Jiangsu Hongjiangding Company to sell 51% of its shares in the offshore sector to it. Under the marine sector, Jiangsu Ocean and Shanghai Ocean are each priced at RMB 1, and FSP and Tyco are each priced at 1 US dollar. After completing the equity transfer, the offshore sector still needs to repay shareholder loans totaling about RMB 2.1 billion to Honghua. We expect that the sale of the offshore sector will bring the company a net profit of RMB 70 million. In the future, the offshore industry sector will transition to LNG equipment manufacturing. As the LNG market continues to heat up, this will also bring new opportunities to Honghua. There are plenty of orders in hand. Benefiting from the recovery in oil prices, Honghua has plenty of orders. By the end of June 2018, Honghua had recorded in-hand orders of RMB 7 billion, of which $2.3 billion was for land drilling rigs and RMB 754 million for oil services. We expect Honghua to turn ongoing orders worth RMB 4 billion into revenue in the second half of the year. As of the beginning of 2019, the company's on-hand orders were about RMB 2 billion, and most of them are expected to record revenue in 2019. Maintain an increase in holdings. We lowered the company's earnings per share forecast for 19 years from RMB0.07 to RMB0.04, downgraded the earnings forecast for paving in 2020 from RMB0.13 to RMB0.07, and lowered the company's target price from HK$0.96 to HK$0.47, corresponding to a price-earnings ratio of 9.0 times in '19. Considering the favorable divestment of the offshore sector and the abundant order flow, we remain optimistic about the company's future development. We maintain our Overweight Rating.

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