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佳兆业物业(02168.HK):稳健增长的综合物业管理服务商

國信證券(香港) ·  Dec 29, 2018 00:00  · Researches

  Kaishaoye Property, a comprehensive property management service provider, was founded in 1999. Its business covers 12 provinces, municipalities directly under the Central Government and 38 cities in the autonomous regions of China. In 2017, China's property management service companies ranked 14th in total revenue, providing services to nearly 160,000 property units nationwide; more than 4,000 employees. The service sector covers middle to high-end communities and non-residential properties, including commercial properties, office buildings, performance venues and stadiums, government buildings, public facilities and industrial parks. Steady growth in management area can be expected. As of June 30, 2018, the total contract construction area has increased to 30.4 million square meters, and the total management construction area has increased to 25.4 million square meters. In addition, the company's parent company, Kaisa Group, also has 21.9 million square meters of land reserves, 58% of which are located in the Greater Bay Area; in addition, there are also about 24 million square meters of land reform projects, most of which are concentrated in the Shenzhen area, accounting for 37% of the land area. Guangzhou and Zhongshan are in second place, accounting for 22% and 26% of the land area respectively. The parent company's sufficient reserve area lays a good foundation for Kaisa Property to manage steady growth in construction area in the future. Financial performance was relatively steady. From 2015 to 2017, the company's total revenue increased from 478 million yuan to 669 million yuan, with a three-year compound growth rate of 18.3%. Net profit increased from 57.72 million yuan to 71.44 million yuan, with a three-year compound growth rate of 11.2%. From 2015 to 2017, the company's gross margin declined slightly from 34.6% to 30.5%, mainly due to the increase in service costs before delivery and consultancy services, the high labor intensity of construction property management services, and the increase in employee costs and outsourced service fees paid to third parties, resulting in a decline in overall gross margin in the pre-delivery and consulting services sector. It is expected that with a slight increase in the company's average property management fee and the implementation of various cost reduction measures, the company's overall gross margin will remain stable and increase slightly. The company's net profit margin remained generally stable from 2015 to 2017. Profit forecast and valuation. We expect the company's operating income to achieve 23.2% and 20% growth of 824 million yuan and 989 million yuan respectively in 2018 and 2019, and net profit growth of 21% and 12% to 86 million yuan and 96 million yuan. Given the low compound growth rate of the company's operating income and net profit over the past three years among major Hong Kong stock property management companies, and that revenue from the pre-delivery and advisory services sector accounts for a relatively high share of the company's total revenue, the share of revenue in this sector may decline in the future, giving the company 10 times PE in 2019 and a target price of HK$7.84 for the next year, giving it a “neutral” investment rating. Risks suggest that the reform of the social security collection system has exceeded expectations; adjustments in the real estate industry have exceeded expectations, leading to a slowdown in company performance growth.

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