Huasheng Tiancheng (600410): still optimistic about high-end IT business

元大證券 · Dec 25, 2018 00:00 · Researches

信息更新：

华胜天成2014 年营收因业务转型而同比下滑11%。净利润为人民币9,500 万元，与公司业绩快报相符。

我们重申买入评级，目标价上调至人民币40 元。

本中心观点：

我们依然看好1）公司可信开放高端计算系统的增长动能；及2）公司与IBM 合作生产高端IT 系统。

重申买入评级，目标价上调至人民币40 元：我们依然看好华胜天成可信IT 解决方案系统的增长动能，并对其与IBM 合作开发高端IT系统持乐观看法。我们预计公司2015/16 年盈利将同比增长261%/97%。

业务转型导致2014 年营收低于预期： 2014 年华胜天成营收同比下滑11%至人民币43 亿元，较本中心预期低19%。我们认为营收不及预期的原因是1）公司业务重心转向开发可信IT 解决方案；及2）降低IT 系统授权业务的占比。然而，2014 年净利润同比增长128%至人民币9,500 万元，与公司1 月份发布的业绩快报相符。我们认为盈利增长系因1）营收结构改善，高利润率的业务营收占比提高；及2）获得投资收益。

我们仍对华胜天成的可信IT 解决方案系统以及与IBM 合作开发国产高端IT 解决方案持乐观态度。华胜天成近期公告称公司将投资一项新的高端IT 制造平台，这将进一步加深公司在高端IT 系统领域的渗透率。借助与IBM 的合作，我们预计高端服务器业务将贡献华胜天成2015 年营收的10%。

目标价上调至人民币40 元：本中心目标价系基于权重相同的现金流折现估值和市盈率估值。我们将市盈率估值中的目标市盈率从62倍调升至86 倍，以反映1）公司可信IT 解决方案业务稳健的增长前景；及2）近期板块估值飙升，2015 年板块平均市盈率目前达80 倍（年初为50 倍）。主要下行风险包括：1）板块估值回落；2）与IBM 的合作终止；3）可信IT 系统平台开发失败。

Information update:

Huasheng Tiancheng's revenue fell 11% year-on-year in 2014 as a result of business transformation. The net profit is 95 million yuan, which is in line with the company's performance of KuaiBao.

We reaffirm our buy rating and raise the target price to RMB 40.

The center's point of view:

We are still optimistic about 1) the growth momentum of the company's trusted open high-end computing systems; and 2) the company's cooperation with IBM to produce high-end IT systems.

Reiterate the buy rating and raise the target price to RMB 40: we are still optimistic about the growth momentum of Huasheng Tiancheng trusted IT solution system and are optimistic about its cooperation with IBM to develop high-end IT system. We expect the company's earnings in 2015 to grow by 261% in 2016 compared with the same period last year.

Business transformation led to lower-than-expected revenue in 2014: revenue from Huasheng Tiancheng fell 11% year-on-year to 4.3 billion yuan, 19% lower than the center's expectations. We believe that the reason for the lower-than-expected revenue is 1) the company's business focus has shifted to developing trusted IT solutions, and 2) reducing the proportion of IT system licensing business. However, net profit in 2014 rose 128 per cent year-on-year to 95 million yuan, in line with the company's results released in January, KuaiBao. We believe that the profit growth is due to 1) an improvement in revenue structure and an increase in the proportion of revenue from high-margin businesses; and 2) investment income.

We are still optimistic about Huasheng Tiancheng's trusted IT solution system and its cooperation with IBM to develop domestic high-end IT solutions. Huasheng Tiancheng recently announced that it will invest in a new high-end IT manufacturing platform, which will further deepen the company's penetration in the field of high-end IT systems. With our partnership with IBM, we expect the high-end server business to contribute 10 per cent of Huasheng Tiancheng's 2015 revenue.

The target price is raised to RMB 40: the target price of the center is based on discounted cash flow valuation and price-to-earnings ratio valuation with the same weight. We have raised the target price-to-earnings ratio from 62 to 86 to reflect 1) the solid growth prospects of the company's trusted IT solution business; and 2) the recent surge in sector valuations, with the sector currently trading at an average price-to-earnings ratio of 80 times in 2015 (50 times at the beginning of the year). The main downside risks include: 1) decline in plate valuation; 2) termination of cooperation with IBM; 3) failure of trusted IT system platform development.

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华胜天成(600410)：依然看好高端IT业务

Huasheng Tiancheng (600410): still optimistic about high-end IT business

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