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三六五网(300295)季报点评:三季度业绩下滑符合预期 3+1战略全面推进

東方證券 ·  Oct 26, 2015 00:00  · Researches

Incident: The company released its financial report for the first three quarters. Although there was a year-on-year decline in net profit, it fell within the forecast range. The company's O2O strategy and various businesses are progressing smoothly, and the combination of strong financial services is expected to be the first to break through. Core view The quarterly performance declined year-on-year due to non-recurring projects: 365.com's total operating income for the third quarter increased by 44.03% year on year, and the quarterly net profit attributable to common shareholders of listed companies fell 33.72% year on year, in line with the performance forecast. The decline in the company's net profit was mainly due to changes in the financial system and prudent tax rate considerations, etc., and O2O business promotion also increased its marketing expenses. We do not see any obvious signs of decline in our main business. The O2O strategic transformation continues to advance, and the results can be expected: since the company proposed the O2O “3+1” strategic transformation last year, the company has continued to use its Internet real estate media platform advantages to promote the development and commercial monetization of various O2O businesses in real estate, decoration, community, and finance. The joint financial business will become a new engine: the company and Zhongyuan Real Estate announced on October 14 that they will join forces to jointly develop the real estate finance market. We believe that this business will become a breakthrough point in the company's financial business, and we can expect an explosion in future performance. Financial forecasts and investment recommendations are based on the company's O2O promotion expenses being higher than expected. We lowered our forecast for the company's earnings per share for 2015-17 to be 1.29, 2.06, and 3.81 yuan respectively (the original forecast was 2.1, 2.95, 3.93 yuan). However, we are still optimistic about the prospects for the expansion of the company's O2O “3+1" strategy. Corresponding to the current average price-earnings ratio of comparable companies after adjustments of 41.5 times in 2016, considering the scarcity of real estate O2O targets and the blue ocean market for financial services, and the 72% CAGR for the next three years higher than that of comparable companies, a 20% premium is given. The target price-earnings ratio for 2016 is 50 times, corresponding to the target price of 103 yuan. Maintain the buy rating. Risks suggest that the company's main business is subject to fierce market competition, O2O business promotion results have not met expectations, small loan license applications have not been successful, etc.

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