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华油能源(1251.HK):14年业绩下滑 行业困境短期难以反转

第一上海 ·  Dec 24, 2018 00:00  · Researches

Results declined in 2014, and the industry's difficult situation was difficult to reverse the sharp decline in net profit in 2014: the company's revenue in 2014 was RMB 2,187 billion, down 9% from the same period in 2013. Net profit fell sharply by 61.3% to RMB 116 million, with basic earnings per share of RMB 0.05 and no final dividend. The main reason for the decline in revenue and profits was a decline in business due to the weak oil and gas market and losses recorded by the devaluation of the Kazakh currency tenge. Completion and drilling revenue declined, and reservoirs rose slightly: working components in the completion and drilling sector were closely related to the capital expenses of oil companies, and were affected by low oil prices. In 2014, completion and drilling revenue decreased by 12.9% and 14.3%, respectively, compared to the same period last year. However, since the Group's main customers did not reduce production in 2014, the reservoir sector's revenue still increased slightly by about 1%. Orders are slowing down, and revenue is expected to decline in 2015: dragged down by low oil prices, CNPC's net profit for the first quarter fell 82% year on year, oil companies cut capital expenses, and the number of company orders slowed. The decline in domestic orders was particularly significant. The number of drilling and completion orders dropped sharply. Affected by this, total revenue is expected to decline in 2015. The development of shale gas has fallen short of expectations, and demand for environmentally friendly oil services will rise in the future: shale gas development fell short of expectations in 2014, mainly due to falling oil prices, and the enthusiasm of all parties to develop shale gas also declined. The company began providing water-based mud waste treatment in '14, and will continue to expand its scale in Tarim. The Ordos Basin and Bohai Oilfield also have great demand for oilfield environmental protection, and the future prospects for environmentally friendly oil services are huge. Continuing the asset-light model, it has strong risk resilience: In 2015, Huayu will continue to adhere to the asset-light service model. Apart from existing investments that must be completed and contracts that have already been signed, it is not expected to acquire other assets. However, the asset-light model has strong risk resilience, which is particularly valuable when the industry as a whole is facing difficulties. Adjust the target price of HK$2, holding the rating: We expect that the industry's difficult situation in 2015 will be difficult to reverse in the short term. Taking into account the stable contribution of the company's reservoir sector and the superiority of the asset-light model, we will adjust the company's target price of HK$2 for the next 12 months. There is room for a 13% increase compared to the current price, which is 1.3 times the PB valuation level of 2015.

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