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易居企业控股(02048.HK):逆风前行

中金公司 ·  Dec 5, 2018 00:00  · Researches

For the first time, investment highlights covered the recommended rating from Yiju Enterprise Holding Company (02048). The target price of HK$16.32 corresponds to 21.5/16.0 times the 2018/2019 price-earnings ratio, and 20% room for stock price growth. The reason is as follows: As a comprehensive real estate industry service provider, we believe that Yiju will continue to maintain its leading position in the industry. First-class new home agency business. National new home sales have been in recession since the fourth quarter of 2018. We expect the national commercial housing sales area to drop 10% year-on-year in 2019, putting pressure on the new housing agency business. However, we believe that in 2019, Yiju will still achieve resilient growth of 22% in terms of new housing turnover and commission revenue, mainly benefiting from its ability to obtain service contracts brought about by strategic partnerships with the top 100 developers. And its excellent project execution ability can strongly guarantee sales conversion and commissions. Kerry — A leader in real estate big data and consulting services. With the support of massive data accumulation and innovation capabilities, Kerry (a brand owned by Yiju) can provide developers with effective business optimization strategies at a stage where the concentration of the real estate market accelerates. We expect Kerry's annualized revenue growth rate to remain around 20%. The S2B2C model has created the largest network of second-hand housing brokers and stores. The Housekeeper Platform empowers small brokerage service providers and transforms them into households' stores. Because they can maintain independent management even after conversion and open up new profit channels through cross-selling of new homes, these new householders' stores usually have strong stickiness. Benefiting from this, the HomeFriends platform has acquired more than 8,700 stores since its launch in 2016 (up to the first half of 2018), surpassing the chain. We now expect the number of households' stores to reach 12,000 and 15,000 by the end of 2018 and 2019, respectively, and bring in 26 billion/77 billion yuan in annual new housing turnover. What is our biggest difference from the market? We think homeowners will focus more on supporting their turnover growth by improving the efficiency of individual stores. Potential catalyst: Considering that developers prefer to rely on external agents and sales channels during the downturn in the market, there may be room for new housing turnover to exceed expectations. Profit forecast and valuation We expect the company's 2018/19 EPS to be RMB 0.68/$0.93, respectively, and a CAGR of 42%. Through the segmented valuation method, we received EasyHome's target market value of HK$24 billion, corresponding to the target price of HK$16.32 per share (of which the new housing agency business contributed 69%, real estate big data and consulting services contributed 13%, and the homeowner platform 18%). The company is currently trading 17.9 times /13.4 times the 2018/19 price-earnings ratio. Risk Due to the downturn in the market, the turnover of new homes in 2019 fell short of our expectations.

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