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上海锦江国际酒店(02006.HK):新增酒店数少于预期 下调至“收集”

國泰君安國際 ·  Dec 19, 2018 00:00  · Researches

The company's subsidiaries operating limited serviced hotels recorded net revenue of RMB 3,996 billion in the third quarter of 2018, an increase of 7.4% over the previous year. As operating profit margin increased 0.6 percentage points to 16.0% year on year, operating profit increased 11.8% year over year to RMB 639 million. Net profit increased 54.1% year over year to RMB 461 million. Due to the anticipated decrease in the number of new hotels added in the future, we lowered the company's revenue forecasts for 2018-2020 by 3.6%, 8.7%, and 8.1%, respectively. In the first nine months of 2018, the subsidiary's net increase in the number of hotels operated by the subsidiary was 499, lower than our expectations. The subsidiary closed or sold a number of underperforming self-operated and economy hotels during this period. We lowered the company's net profit forecasts for 2018-2020 by 10.2%, 14.1% and 13.4%, respectively, to RMB 784 million, 869 million and $1,018 million, respectively, with a compound annual growth rate of 10.2%. We expect the company's basic and diluted net profit per share for 2018-2020 to be RMB 0.141, 0.156 and $0.183 respectively, with a compound annual growth rate of 9.1%. We downgraded the company's target price from HK$3.80 to HK$2.40, and downgraded the investment rating from “buy” to “collect”. Our target price is equivalent to 9.7 times the 2018 adjusted EV/EBITDA and 13.8 times the 2018 price-earnings ratio. Since the beginning of the year, the company's RevPar growth has fallen short of our expectations, and the number of poorly run hotels that have closed has been higher than our expectations. If the macroeconomic economy deteriorates and has a negative impact on RevPAR, companies facing downside risks may be forced to close more of their poorly run hotels.

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