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云南旅游(002059)点评:出售地产业务 补充公司现金流

國泰君安 ·  Dec 17, 2018 11:00  · Researches

Guide to this report: The company's shareholders' meeting passed a plan to divest the real estate business, which will supplement the company's cash flow and help the company further integrate tourism resources in Yunnan Province. Investment points: Raise the 2018 profit forecast and maintain an increase in holdings rating. The 2018-2020 EPS was raised from $0.15/0.18/0.20 to $1.28/0.18/0.20 based on the increase in investment income from the sale of real estate business in 2018 and 2020. Affected by expectations of ticket price reduction in the scenic area industry, the overall valuation center of scenic spot stocks in 2018 moved downward, so the target price for 2019 was lowered from 15.52 yuan to 6.7 yuan, corresponding to the 2019 dynamic valuation of 31XPE, maintaining an increase in holdings rating. Sale of real estate business to increase profit in 2018. The company announced on December 17, 2018, that the shareholders' meeting has passed the “Proposal on the Company's Sale of Subsidiary Shares and Related Transactions”, which will divest the real estate business and sell 55% of its shares in Yunxing World Expo to OCT West Company. 55% of the shares sold at a price of $1,214 billion. Based on the difference between 55% equity consideration and the net assets corresponding to the sale, we estimate that the company will receive an investment income of about 900 million yuan. The stock of traditional businesses is expected to improve. The divestment of the real estate business to supplement the company's cash flow will contribute to the better development of the existing business. The World Expo Park Scenic Area changed management ideas and disrupted the ticket economy. The conference center sought steady progress, and the Garden Hotel actively expanded businesses such as motorhome camps, canteen hosting, and butler services. Yunnan Province is rich in tourism resources, and tourism regulation has long-term benefits for the province's tourism ecology. ① Yunnan is rich in traditional sightseeing tourism resources, and capital intervention and integration are urgently needed in the transformation and upgrading of scenic spots. After OCT joined, the value of the company's integrated platform was reflected; ② In 2017, Yunnan Province had remarkable results in rectifying tourism chaos with an iron fist, which helped the healthy development of tourism ecology throughout the province in the long term. Risk factors: macroeconomic downside risk, low asset divestment rate expectations.

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